MEHMET AKİF ARVAS, HALUK YERGİN, Haluk YERGİN, Cemalettin LEVENT

Konut Talebinin Dinamikleri: Van İli Örneği, Türkiye

Küresel olarak, son yıllarda inşaat sektöründeki büyümeyle birlikte konut arzındaki büyük artış tüketicilerin satın alma davranışını etkilemiştir. Emlak sektörünün ilerlemesinde, tüketicilerin artan refahı ve düşen faiz oranları da etkili olmuştur. Pek çok tanımı olmasına rağmen, mesken, bireylerin hayatlarını sürdürebilmelerini sağlayan mutfak, içme suyu tesisatları ve atık sistemi gibi alanların toplamı olarak tanımlanmıştır. Sonuç olarak, bir ev sosyal, kültürel, ekonomik, yasal ve teknolojik faktörler gibi çok yönlü bileşenlere sahip bir bütündür. Konut piyasası kavramı son yıllarda yerel ve merkezi hükümetler için önem kazandığından, bu konuda çeşitli araştırma ve çalışmalar yapılmıştır. Literatürde konut piyasası ile ilgili çalışmalar son yıllarda önemli bir artış göstermiştir. Küresel finansal piyasalarda faiz oranlarındaki düşüş ve artan likidite nedeniyle, konut yatırımları bu alana yapılan sermaye akımlarının bir kısmını çekmiştir. Konut piyasasının gerçek etkileri gelir artışı, genel tasarruf ve yatırım seviyesi, istihdam ve işgücü hareketliliği düzeyi açısından incelenmektedir. Konut talebine ilişkin ampirik çalışmalar temel olarak konut fiyatları ile bazı makroekonomik göstergeler arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu nedenle, konut piyasasında il düzeyinde yürütülen çalışma sayısı oldukça düşüktür. Bu bağlamda, bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye'nin Van ilinde yakın gelecekte ev satın alma kararlarını etkileyen temel faktörleri araştırmaktır. Talep denkleminde yer alan cinsiyet, medeni durum, gelir, yaş, hane halkı büyüklüğü, evin yeri, evin tipi, cazibe merkezlerine yakınlık gibi bazı hedonik (fiyat dışı) faktörlerin konut talebine etkileri analiz edilmiştir. Bu amaçla, tüketicilerin satın alma kararlarını tahmin etmek için şehir merkezinde yaşayan ve rasgele seçilmiş olan 450 kişiye anket uygulanmıştır. Logit model tahmin sonuçlarına göre, cinsiyet, medeni durum, yaş, çalışma durumu, eğitim ve gelir gibi faktörlerin bir ev sahibi olma olasılığını arttırdığı görülmüştür. Ayrıca merkezdeki evler daha çok talep edilirken, işyeri, okul ve hastane gibi yerlere yakınlık, bu talepte güvenlik, kira geliri ve yatırım faktörlerinden çok daha az etkili olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Logit Model, Konut Talebi, Konut Piyasası, Van, Türkiye

Dynamics of Housing Demand: The Case of Van Province, Turkey

A house is a whole with versatile components such as social, cultural, economic, legal, and technological factors. Because of the decline in interest rates and increasing liquidity in the globalized financial markets, housing investments have attracted some of the capital flows to this field. The real effects of the housing market are examined in terms of the increases in income, the general level of savings and investments, and the level of employment and labour mobility. Empirical studies on the housing demand have mainly aimed to investigate the relationship between the prices of houses and some macroeconomic indicators. Therefore, the number of studies conducted at the provincial level in the housing market is quite low. In this context, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the key factors that affect the decisions of individuals to buy a house in the near future, in Van province, Turkey. In the demand equation, the effects of a number of hedonic (non-price) factors such as gender, marital status, income, age, household size, location of the house, type of the house, proximity to attraction centres on the housing demand are analysed. For this purpose, in order to analyse the purchasing decisions of consumers in the housing demand function, a questionnaire was applied to 450-randomly selected people who live in the city centre. According to logit model estimation results, it is observed that factors such as gender, marital status, age, working status, education, and income increased the likelihood of owning a house. Further, while the houses in the centre are more demanded, proximity to the places such as workplace, school, and the hospital is much less effective than the security, rental income, and investment factors, in such demand.

Keywords:

Housing Demand, Housing market, Van, Turkey, Logit Model,

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