Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ile Ekonomik Büyüme Bağlantısının Analizi: Genişletilmiş NARDL Yaklaşımı

Finansal gelişmenin kapsamlı bir göstergesi olan finansal gelişme endeksi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin asimetrik olabileceği varsayımının Türkiye özelinde incelendiği bu çalışma, 1980-2020 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki hem asimetrik ilişkiyi hem de uzun ve kısa dönem bağlantıları tespit etmek amacıyla doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif sınır testine (NARDL) başvurulmuştur. Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi genişletilmiş ARDL yaklaşımıyla da test edilmiştir. Uzun dönemde finansal gelişme endeksinin pozitif şoklarının büyümeye etkisi olumsuz ve anlamsızken negatif şoklarının büyümeye etkisi olumlu ve anlamlı bulunmuştur. Hatemi-J asimetrik nedensellik testi sonuçları ise finansal gelişmenin hem pozitif hem de negatif şoklarından ekonomik büyümenin pozitif şoklarına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Literatürde hâkim görüşün tersi yönde elde edilen bu sonucun Türkiye’nin ekonomik ve finansal yapısından kaynaklandığı düşünülmektedir. Finansal kurum ve piyasaları gelişmiş ülkelerin gerisinde yer alan Türkiye’nin sağlıklı bir finansal sistem inşa etmesi, gelir eşitsizliğini ve enflasyonu düşürmesi, finansal sektöre yönelik beşerî sermaye yatırımlarını arttırması ve kaynak tahsisinde etkinliği sağlaması gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Finansal gelişme, Finansal gelişme endeksi, Doğrusal olmayan ARDL, Genişletilmiş ARDL, Hatemi-J nedensellik testi

Analyzing the Linkage Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Türkiye: Augmented NARDL Approach

This study, which examines the assumption that the relationship between the financial development index, which is a comprehensive indicator of financial development, and economic growth may be asymmetric in Türkiye, covers the period 1980–2020. A non-linear autoregressive distributed lag bounds test (NARDL) was used to determine both the asymmetric relationship and the long- and short-run linkages between the variables. The cointegration relationship between the variables was also tested with the augmented ARDL approach. In the long run, the effect of positive shocks of the financial development index on growth is negative but insignificant, while the effect of negative shocks on growth is positive and significant. The results of the Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test revealed a unidirectional causality relationship from both positive and negative shocks of financial development to positive shocks of economic growth. This finding, contrary to the prevailing view in the literature, may be due to Türkiye's economic and financial structure. Türkiye, whose financial institutions and markets are behind developed countries, needs to build a healthy financial system, reduce income inequality and inflation, increase human capital investments in the financial sector, and ensure efficiency in resource allocation.

Keywords:

Financial development, Financial development index, Nonlinear ARDL, Augmented ARDL, Hatemi-J causality test,

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