Vergi Gelirinin Parasal ve Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Örneği

Bu çalışmada seçilen parasal ve makroekonomik değişkenlerin vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla Türkiye’de 2006:1-2022:11 dönemi için aylık gözlemler dâhilinde geniş para (M2), USD/TRY kuru, sanayi üretim endeksi, mevduat faiz oranı, işsizlik oranı ve ihracatın vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkileri Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Model (ARDL) ile analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular, vergi gelirleri ile tüm seriler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Uzun dönem katsayı tahminlerine göre geniş para (M2), sanayi üretim endeksi, mevduat faiz oranı ve ihracat serileri vergi düzeyini pozitif yönde etkilerken, işsizlik oranı ve USD/TRY kuru vergi düzeyini negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Ayrıca, sonuçlar geniş paranın (M2) vergi gelirleri üzerinde en fazla etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu bağlamda, vergi gelirlerini artırmak isteyen vergi otoritelerinin vergi politikası hedeflerini belirlerken diğer göstergelerin yanı sıra geniş paranın (M2) vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisini daha fazla dikkate almaları önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Vergi Gelirleri, Vergi Gelirlerinin Belirleyicileri, ARDL, Türkiye

Monetary and Macroeconomic Determinants of Tax Revenue: The Case of Türkiye

In this study, the effects of selected monetary and macroeconomic variables on tax revenues are investigated. For this purpose, the effects of the USD/TRY exchange rate, broad money (M2), industrial production index, deposit interest rate, unemployment rate and exports on the tax revenues are analyzed with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) with monthly observations for the period between 2006:1-2022:11 in Türkiye. The empirical findings reveal that there is a cointegration relationship between tax revenues and all series. According to the long-run coefficient estimates, the broad money (M2), industrial production index, deposit interest rate and export series affect the tax level positively, while the unemployment rate and USD/TRY exchange rate affect the tax level negatively. Furthermore, the results show that the broad money (M2) has the greatest effect in tax revenues. In this context, it is recommended that the tax authorities seeking to increase tax revenues should pay more attention to the effect of broad money (M2), as well as other indicators, on tax revenues when determining the tax policy targets.

Keywords:

Tax Revenues, Determinants of Tax Revenues, ARDL, Türkiye,

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