Türkiye'de Finansal Gelişme, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Ticari Açıklığın İnsani Gelişmeye Etkisi: Genişletilmiş ARDL Yaklaşımı

Toplumların refahı değerlendirilirken gelir gibi maddi ölçütlerin kullanılması yanıltıcı olabilmektedir. Eğitimli ve sağlıklı olmak parasal bir büyüklük olan gelirle birlikte bireylerin refahlarını daha iyi temsil etmektedir. İnsani gelişme yaklaşımı gelirin yanında bireylerin sağlık ve eğitim düzeylerini de ölçüp değerlendirmektedir. İnsani gelişme düzeyinin yükseltilebilmesi için insani gelişmeye olumlu ve olumsuz etki eden faktörlerin tespit edilmesi gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1990-2020 döneminde finansal gelişme, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ticari açıklığın insani gelişme üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisi genişletilmiş ARDL prosedürü ile incelenmiştir. Sınır testi sonuçları değişkenlerin eşbütünleşik olduğunu göstermiştir. Uzun dönem katsayıları ise insani gelişme üzerinde finansal gelişmenin olumlu, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ticari açıklığın olumsuz etki yarattığını ortaya koymuştur. Nedensel ilişkilerin araştırıldığı Breitung-Candelon frekans alanı nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre finansal gelişmeden insani gelişmeye sadece uzun dönemde tek yönlü, insani gelişmeden ticari açıklığa orta dönemde tek yönlü ancak uzun dönemde çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Bu sonuçlar daha yüksek gelirin yanında daha iyi sağlık ve eğitim düzeyi için finansal piyasa ve kurumların geliştirilmesi, dış ticaret rejiminde ve ülke içine yatırım akışında yapısal değişimlerin yapılması gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İnsani gelişme, Finansal gelişme, Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, Ticari açıklık, Genişletilmiş ARDL

The Impact of Financial Development, Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Openness on Human Development in Türkiye: An Augmented ARDL Approach

The use of material criteria such as income when assessing the welfare of societies can be misleading. In addition to income, which is a monetary measure, being educated and healthy better represents the welfare of individuals. The human development approach assesses the level of an individual's health and education, in addition to their income. In order to increase the level of human development, it is necessary to identify the factors that affect human development positively and negatively. This study analyzes the impact of financial development, foreign direct investment, and trade openness on human development in Türkiye for the period 1990–2020. The long-run relationship between the variables is analyzed with the augmented ARDL procedure. The bounds test results show that the variables are cointegrated. Long-run coefficients reveal that financial development has a positive effect on human development, while FDI and trade openness have a negative effect. According to the results of the Breitung-Candelon frequency-domain causality test, a unidirectional causality relationship was found from financial development to human development only in the long run, and a unidirectional causality relationship was found from human development to trade openness in the medium term but bidirectional in the long run. These results suggest that higher incomes, better health, and higher education levels require the development of financial markets and institutions and structural changes in the foreign trade regime and inward direct investment flows.

Keywords:

Human development, Financial development, Foreign direct investment, Trade openness, Augmented ARDL,

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