Geçiş Ekonomilerinde Turizme ve Enerjiye Da-yalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Analizi: Panel Neden-sellik Testi

Bu çalışmanın amacı, geçiş ekonomilerinde 1995-2014 dö-nemleri arasında turizm gelirleri, enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektir. Analiz kapsamında, paneli oluşturan değişkenler arasında ve modelde yatay kesit bağımlılığının olup olmadığı test edilmiştir. Değişkenler ara-sındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) nedensellik testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, değişkenlerde ve modelde yatay kesit bağımlılığının olduğunu göstermiştir. Nedensellik testinde, geçiş ekonomilerinde; tu-rizm gelirlerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru “Ermenistan, Kazakistan, Rusya, Arnavutluk ve Macaristan”da; ekonomik büyümeden turizm gelirlerine doğru “Ermenistan, Kazakistan, Ukrayna, Bulgaristan, Hırvatistan, Romanya, Slovakya”da; enerji tüketiminden ekonomik büyümeye doğru; “Azerbaycan, Kırgızistan, Polonya”da; ekonomik büyümeden enerji kullanı-mına doğru “Kazakistan”da nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu gö-rülmektedir. Bu bilgiler ışığında turizme dayalı büyüme hipo-tezinin “Ermenistan, Kazakistan, Rusya, Arnavutluk ve Maca-ristan”da geçerli olduğu görülmektedir. Enerjiye dayalı büyü-me hipotezi “Azerbaycan, Kırgızistan, Polonya”da geçerlidir.

An Analysis of Hypothesis Growth Based on Tourism and Energy in Transition Economies: Panel Causality Test

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relations-hip between tourism incomes, energy consumption and eco-nomic growth in transition economies between 1995 and 2014. Within the scope of the analysis, it was tested whether there is horizontal section dependency between the panel forming vari-ables and the model. The causality relation between variables was analyzed by Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) causality test. The results of the analysis showed that there is horizontal section dependency in the variables and model. It seems that there is a causal relation in causality test, Transition Economies; from tourism revenues to economic growth: in "Armenia, Ka-zakhstan, Russia, Albania and Hungary"; from economic growth to tourism income: in "Armenia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Slovakia"; from energy consump-tion to economic growth: "Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Poland"; in Kazakhstan from economic growth towards energy use. In light of this information, the tourism-based growth hypothesis is va-lid in Armenia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Albania and Hungary. The energy-based growth hypothesis is also valid in "Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Poland".

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