İMKANSIZ ÜÇLEME'DEN İMKANSIZ İKİLEM'E: Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler

mkansız üçleme kavramı Bretton Woods (BW) sistemi para politikasını anlamak için yararlı olabilir. Ancak, BW sistemi sırasında görece bağımsız para politikası uygulanabilmesine, sermaye hareketleri üzerindeki kontrollerin yanı sıra merkez bankası araç çeşitliliği ve yurt içi piyasaların kontrol altında tutulması da katkı sunmuştur. BW sistemi sonrası dönemde sermaye hareketleri tamamen serbest bırakılırken finansal piyasalardaki kurallar gevşetilmiştir. Var olan kurallar ise kullanılmamıştır. Kısa dönem faiz oranları merkez bankalarının yegane aracı olarak ön plana çıkmıştır. Sermaye hareketleri ve finansal piyasalar çok büyük boyutlara ulaşırken merkez bankalarının sadece gecelik faizlerle temel makroekonomik değişkenleri etkileme kapasitesi özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde aşınmıştır. Bu süreç bir anlamda zamanla imkansız üçlemeden imkansız ikilemeye geçiş olarak da düşünülebilir.

FROM TRILEMMA TO DILEMMA: MONETARY POLICY DURING AND AFTER THE BRETTON WOODS SYSTEM

Trilemma can be a useful concept to understand monetary policy during the Bretton Woods (BW) regime. Under this regime, beside capital controls, regulated domestic financial markets and diversity in central bank instruments contributed to existence of independent monetary policy. However, after the collapse of the BW system, capital controls were lifted, domestic financial markets were deregulated, existing regulations were not implemented properly and short-term interest rates became the sole instrument of central banks. The size of financial flows and financial markets has reached unprecedented levels. During this process, the ability of central banks in both developed and developing countries has weakened. Especially in developing countries, main macroeconomic indicators have become very sensitive to the developments in the movements of financial flows. In this sense, we argue that this process can be considered a gradual transition from trilemma to dilemma especially in developing countries.

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