Dış Tasarrufların Yurt İçi Tasarruflar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Teori ve Uygulama

Ekonomilerin dışa açıklık derecesinin artması, ülkeler arasındaki kaynak transferlerini de artırmıştır. Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezi örneğinde görüldüğü gibi, bu süreç ülkelerin mevcut kaynaklardaki yetersizlik sorununu dış kaynaklarla aşmalarına olanak sağlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, dış tasarruf olarak adlandırılan doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, portföy yatırımları ve diğer yatırımların (veya kısa ve uzun vadeli dış borç akımlarının) yurt içi tasarruf oranlarına nasıl bir etkisi olduğu incelenmiştir. Bu kaynakların, yurt içi tasarrufları azaltabileceği argümanı Haavelmo Hipotezi olarak bilinir. Araştırmanın örneklem ülkeleri, Kırılgan Sekizli olarak adlandırılan Arjantin, Brezilya, Şili, Hindistan, Endonezya, Rusya, Güney Afrika Cumhuriyeti, Türkiye’dir. Değişkenler durağanlık kontrolünden geçirildikten sonra aralarında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olup olmadığını belirlemek için Westerlund Durbin Hausman panel eşbütünleşme testi kullanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisi doğrulandıktan sonra uzun dönem parametre tahminleri için Panel Tam Değiştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler (FMOLS) ve Sürekli güncellenen Tam Değiştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler (CUP-FMOLS) tahmincileri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar dış tasarrufların iç tasarruflar üzerinde negatif etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer taraftan geleneksel tasarruf fonksiyonunun belirleyicileri olarak modele kişibaşına reel gelir ve reel faiz oranları kontrol değişkenleri olarak dahil edilmştir. Reel faiz oranı ve kişi başına reel gelirin yurtiçi tasarrufları olumlu etkilediği ancak reel faiz oranının etki bakımından nispeten düşük bir katsayıya sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yurt İçi Tasarruflar, Dış Tasarruflar, Panel Eşbütünleşme, CUP-FMOLS, Kırılgan Sekizli

The Effect of Foreign Savings on Domestic Savings: Theory and Application

The increase in the degree of openness of the economies has also increased resource transfers among countries. As seen in the example of the Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis, this process allows countries to overcome the problem of insufficient existing resources with external resources. In this study, it is examined how foreign direct investments, portfolio investments and other investments (or short and long run external debt flows), which are called foreign savings, have an effect on domestic savings rates. The argument that these resources can reduce domestic savings is known as the Haavelmo Hypothesis. The sample countries of the research are Argentina, Brazil, Chile, India, Indonesia, Russia, Republic of South Africa, Turkey, which are called as Fragile Eight. After the variables were checked for stationarity, the Westerlund Durbin Hausman panel cointegration test was used to determine whether there was a cointegration relationship between them. After confirming the cointegration relationship, Panel Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) and Continuously updated Fully Modified Least Squares (CUP-FMOLS) estimators were used for long-term parameter estimations. The results show that foreign savings have a negative effect on domestic savings. On the other hand, real income per capita and real interest rates are included in the model as control variables as determinants of the traditional saving function. It has been determined that the real interest rate and real income per capita have a positive effect on domestic savings, but the real interest rate has a relatively low coefficient in terms of effect.

Keywords:

Domestic Savings, Foreign Savings, Panel Coenteration, CUP-FMOLS, Fragile Eight,

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