Banking leverage, credit indicators, current account balance and economic growth with their implications in Turkey (1999-2013)

Kaldıraç, Kredi Büyümesi, Kredi/Mevduat ve Kredi Takip Oranı gibi göstergelerin Gayri Saf YurtiçiHasıla (GSYH) büyümesi ve Cari Hesap Dengesi (Cari Açık) üzerinde ne kadar etkili ve bunlarla ne kadarilişkili olduğu fnansal ekonomi literatüründe ciddi şekilde tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, söz konusu kredigöstergelerinin sözünü ettiğimiz iki temel makro ekonomik değişken üzerindeki önemi analiz edilmiştir. Yaptığımız çalışma sonucuna göre, kullandığımız kredi göstergeleri Cari Hesap Dengesi (Cari Açık) ileGSYH büyümesine göre daha fazla ilişki ve nedensellik göstermiştir. Bankaların Kaldıraç Oranı da diğerkredi göstergelerine nazaran hem Cari Hesap Dengesi (Cari Açık) hem de GSYH büyümesi açısından dahafazla önem arz etmiştir. Bu nedenle fnansal istikrarın desteklenmesi amacıyla bankaların Kaldıraç Oranınınbir politika aracı ve hedef olarak kullanılmasının diğer kredi göstergelerine kıyasla daha etkin bir yöntemolacağı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.

Türkiye de 1999-2013 verileri ışığında bankaların kaldıraç oranı, kredi göstergeleri, cari hesap dengesi ve ekonomik büyüme

Te infuence of credit indicators, such as Banking Leverage, Credit Growth Rate, Credit/Deposit andNon-performing Loans Ratios over growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Current AccountBalance are both very substantial and argumentative matters for fnancial economics literature. In this study,the importance of these credit indicators over two main parameters of macroeconomic environment isanalyzed. According to the analysis results, credit indicators are more infuential and show more causalityover current account balance than GDP. On the other hand Banking Leverage is more infuential andshows more causality over current account balance and GDP than other credit indicators. As for policyimplications, our fndings implies that banking leverage is more efective regulation and policy tool asmacro prudential measures and targets in order to sustain fnancial stability than other credit indicators.

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