ULUSLARARASI PARA SİSTEMLERİNDE ALTININ ROLÜ VE ENFLASYONA KARŞI BĠR HEDGİNG ARACI OLARAK ALTININ KULLANIMI

Altın uluslararası para sistemlerinin tarihi dönüĢümü içerisinde önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Günümüzde, özellikle yatırımcılar için belirsizliğin hakim olduğu dönemlerde, bir hedging aracı olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalıĢmada enflasyon ile altın fiyatı arasındaki iliĢki Türkiye için Temmuz 2012- Haziran 2019 dönemini kapsayacak Ģekilde analiz edilmektedir. Altının külçe fiyatı ve TÜFE kullanılan değiĢkenler olup aralarındaki uzun dönemli iliĢki Gregory-Hansen Yapısal Kırılmalı Koentegrasyon Testi uygulanarak incelenmektedir. Söz konusu testin tercih edilmesinin sebebi Zivot-Andrews Birim Kök Testi sonuçlarıdır. Bulgular ele alınan zaman aralığı içinde kırılmalar olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu kırılmanın dikkate alınması, sağlıklı bilgiye ulaĢmak adına oldukça önemlidir. ÇalıĢmanın sonucunda enflasyon ve altın fiyatı arasında uzun dönemli ve pozitif yönlü bir iliĢkinin var olduğu bulgusuna ulaĢılmıĢtır. Dolayısıyla bu sonuçlar altının yatırımcılar için alternatif ve güçlü bir hedging aracı olabileceğini desteklemektedir.

THE ROLE OF GOLD IN THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARYSYSTEMS AND USING THE GOLD AS A HEDGING INSTRUMENTAGAINST INFLATION

Gold has a role in the historical conversion of the international monetary system. Nowadays, it is preferred as a hedging instrument, especially in uncertainty terms. This study examines the relationship between inflation and gold price using data from July 2012-June to 2019 for Turkey. The price of bullion and CPI are variables, and the long-term connection between them is examined by applying Gregory-Hansen cointegration test with a structural break. The reason for choosing this test is the result of the Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test. Findings show that there are structural breaks of the considered time interval. This assumption is very important for achieving correct information. In the long term, according to the cointegration test results, there is a significant and positive relationship between the price of bullion and CPI. Hence, these results support the assumption that gold can be an alternative and powerful hedging instrument for investors.

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