İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNİN ÇAY VERİMİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: KARADENİZ BÖLGESİ İÇİN BİR ANALİZ

Ġklim değiĢikliği, Türkiye’nin tarımsal çıktı miktarı ve verimini doğrudan etkilemektedir. Çay, iklim değiĢikliğinden etkilenmesi beklenen ürünlerin arasında yer almaktadır. Önemli bir sosyo ekonomik fonksiyonu olan çayın verimindeki değiĢiklerinin olumsuz sonuçlar doğurması beklenmektedir. Bu etki geçmiĢe yönelik olarak 1970-2018 dönemi için panel data yöntemi kullanılarak incelenmiĢtir. Ampirik analiz sonuçlarına göre sıcaklık artıĢının belirli bir eĢik değere kadar çay verimi üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğu ortaya konulmuĢtur. Öte yandan yağıĢ rejimindeki düzensizlikler verimi azaltıcı, ısınmaya paralel olarak don olaylarındaki azalıĢın verimi arttırıcı yönde etki ettiği gözlemlenmiĢtir. Gelecek senaryoları kapsamında yağıĢların düzensizleĢeceği ve sıcaklık farklarının artması beklenmektedir. Bu senaryolar göz önüne alındığında çay üretimi ve veriminin azalacağı, bu durumun ekonomik kayıpların yanısıra, iĢgücüne katılım ve göç gibi negatif sonuçlara yol açabileceği öngörülmektedir

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TEA YIELD: AN ANALYSIS FOR THE BLACK SEA REGION

Climate change directly affects Turkey's agricultural output and yield. Tea is among the products that are expected to be affected by climate change. Changes in the tea yield, which is an important socioeconomic function, are expected to have negative consequences. This effect was examined retrospectively for the period 1970-2018 using the panel data method. According to the empirical analysis results, it has been revealed that the temperature increase has a positive effect on tea yield up to a certain threshold value. On the other hand, it has been observed that the irregularities in the precipitation regime have a decreasing effect on the yield. In contrast, the decrease in frost events in parallel with the warming increases the yield. It is expected that the precipitation will become irregular in future scenarios, and the temperature differences will increase. Considering these scenarios, it is predicted that tea production and yield will decrease, leading to negative consequences such as labor force participation, migration and economic losses

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