Türkiye’de dış borçlanma ve yapısal uyum: Rejim yaklaşımı

Çalışmada amaç borçlanma ve büyüme değişkenleri arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyerek modelleyebilmektir. Bu bağlamda gözlemlenen bir modelde gözlemlenemeyen değişkenlere izin vermesi ve dinamik bir sistemde iterasyonla güçlü optimizasyona ulaşmak için sağlam bir algoritma kullanılması ve kendinden önceki modellere göre daha esnek olması nedenleriyle Markov-Switching (MS) modeli takip edilmiştir. Çalışma Türkiye üzerine odaklanarak veriler 1974-2009 yılları arasındadır. Analizlerde büyüme ve dış borçlanma arasındaki ilişki gerek kısa dönem ve uzun dönem gerekse kamu ve özel dış borç ayrımı yapılarak ele alınmıştır. Bu kapsamda çok değişkenli dinamik Markov-Switching modeli sonuçlarına göre, yatırım ve beşeri sermaye gibi temel büyüme değişkenleri beklenildiği şekilde büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Bulgular; birincisi gerek kısa dönem ve uzun dönem gerekse kamu ve özel dış borçlanma değişkenleri hem rejim sıfırda hem de rejim birde büyümeyi negatif etkilemektedir. İkincisi, kamu borçlanmasının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki negatif etkisi özel borçlanmanın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki negatif etkisinden daha büyüktür. Üçüncüsü, kısa dönem borçlanmanın negatif etkisi uzun dönem borçlanmanın negatif etkisine göre daha küçüktür. Son olarak, ekonomik büyüme ve borçlanma değişkenleri arasındaki ilişki doğrusal değildir.

Foreign debt and structural adjustment in turkey: Regime approach

Paper aims to examine the relationship between debt and growth variables. In this context, Markov-Switching model is used because it allows the examination of unobservable variables in an observable model and provides steady algorithm to achieve robust optimization by iterations in a dynamic system, and is more flexible than prior models. This study concentrated on the analysis of Turkey and utilized the data set for the period between 1970-2009. In analyses, the relationship between growth and external borrowing is examined in terms of either short-term and long-term borrowing or separation of pub- lic and private external borrowing. In this context, according to results of multivariate dynamic Markov-Switching model, the main growth variables such as investment and human capital have positive impact on growth as expected. Findings can be summarized as follows; firstly, either in short or long term, public and/or private external borrowing has negative impact on growth both in regime at zero and regime at one. Secondly, the negative impact of public borrowing on economic development is higher than that of private borrowing on economic development. Thirdly, the negative impact of short term borrowing is lower than that of long term borrowing. Finally, the relationship between economic development and borrowing variables is not linear.

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