1980-2010 Arası dönemde gelişmekte olan ülkelerde dış borçlanmanın belirleyicilerinin analizi

1980-2010 yılları arası dönemde küreselleşme ve uluslararası entegrasyon faaliyetlerinin gelişmekte olan ülkelerde dış borçlanma üzerinde yarattığı etkiler çalışmanın araştırma konusunu oluşturmaktadır. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler kalkınma hamlesini kendi kaynakları ile gerçekleştirmeleri güç olduğundan dış kaynaklara yönelmektedirler. Bu yol ile büyük yatırım projeleri, bütçe ve ödemeler dengesi açıklarının finansmanını sağlamaktadırlar. Çalışmada konu mali ve ekonomik açılardan ele alınmış ama yeri geldikçe uluslararası politikalara da değinilmiştir. Dış borçlanma kuramsal olarak incelendikten sonra belirleyici unsurları panel veri yöntemi ile ampirik olarak analiz edilmeye çalışmıştır. Hesaplanan modeller sonucunda sabit sermaye oluşumu, GSYİH büyüme oranları, nüfus, sermaye kaçışları, kamu kesimi tüketim harcamaları, dış borç servisleri, dış borç faiz ödemeleri, dış ticaret hadleri, kentsel nüfus, finansal liberalizasyon değişkenlerinin dış borçlanmanın gelişiminde belirleyici oldukları sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

The analysis of determinants of external debt in developing countries for 1980-2010 period

The subject of this study is the effects of the globalization and the articulation into the world economy upon the foreign debt accumulation of the developing countries for the 1980-2010 period. Since these countries have been unable to finance development with internal resources, they have been forced to use external resources. Thereby, they finance their investment projects, budget and balance of payment deficits with the help of external debt. The study analyses the issue in terms of fiscal and economic factors, but not without referring to particular international policies. After being theoretically examined, the determinants of external debt is empirically analyzed by employing panel data analysis. The results show that the fixed capital formation, GDP growth ratio, population rates, capital flight, general government consumption expenditure, external debt services, external debt interest payments, terms of trade, urbanization and financial liberalization are the main determinants of external debt.

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