Koray DUMAN, MURAT BELKE

Türkiye’de bütçe açığı ile cari açık arasındaki ilişkinin VAR analizi ile incelenmesi (1998–2011)

Bu çalışma, bütçe ve cari işlem açıkları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini ve nedenselliğin yönünü Türkiye için araştırmaktadır. Keynesyen görüş bütçe açığı ve cari işlemler açığı arasında ilişki olduğunu kabul ederken, Ricardocu Denklik Hipotezi muhtemel bir ilişkinin varlığını reddetmektedir. Bu hipotezlerden hangisinin geçerli olduğu 1998Q1–2011Q2 dönemindeki üçer aylık veriler ve zaman serisi teknikleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Bütçe açığı ve cari açık arasındaki dinamik ilişki Granger nedensellik (Granger Causality), etki-tepki ve varyans ayrıştırma analizleri uygulanarak incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçları Türkiye’de ele alınan dönem itibariyle iki açık arasında çift yönlü bir ilişki bulunduğunu, açığın hem cari açıktan hem de bütçe açığına doğru olduğunu dolayısıyla Keynesyen Görüşün geçer li olduğunu yansıtmaktadır

VAR analysis of the relationship between the current account deficit and budget deficit in Turkey ((1998–2011)

This paper examines the causal relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit, and the direction of causality for Turkey. Keynesian view accepts the possible relationship between the budget deficit and current account deficit, while Ricardian Equivalance Hypothesis rejects this relationship. The validity of these hypothesis was examined between 1998Q1-2011Q2 period using quarterly data and Granger causality test, impulse response and analyzed by applying analysis of variance decomposition. The Granger causality test indicates two -way causality that runs from current account deficit to budget deficit. The empirical analysis in this paper supports the Keynesian view that there is a linkage between budget deficit and current account deficit.

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