TÜRKĠYE’DE KIRMIZI ET PĠYASALARINDA DĠKEY FĠYAT AKTARIMI

Bu makalenin amacı Türkiye‟de kırmızı et arz zincirinde dikey fiyat aktarımının özelliklerini araĢtırmaktır. Negatif ve pozitif fiyat Ģoklarının aktarımındaki potansiyel asimetrinin tahmin edilmesine izin veren doğrusal olmayan otoregresif dağıtılmıĢ gecikme modeli (NARDL) oluĢturulmuĢ ve aylık fiyat verileri kullanılarak dana ve koyun eti piyasaları için tahmin edilmiĢtir. ÇalıĢmada üretici fiyatlarından toptan et satıĢ fiyatlarına ve toptan fiyatlardan perakende fiyatlara doğru iki farklı pazarlama zinciri incelenmiĢtir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre, kırmızı et arz zincirleri arasında dikey fiyat aktarımının olduğuna dair kanıt bulunmuĢtur. Karkas dana eti fiyatlarındaki pozitif değiĢimlerin perakende fiyatlar üzerindeki etkisini gösteren uzun dönem parametresi, negatif değiĢimlere ait parametreden daha büyüktür. Tüketicilerin fiyat artıĢı nedeniyle katlanacağı refah kaybı, fiyat düĢüĢü nedeniyle elde edeceği kazançtan fazladır. Koyun eti piyasalarında ise hem çiftlik-karkas hem de karkas-perakende fiyat iliĢkilerinde negatif Ģoklar fiyat artıĢına sebep olmaktadır. Karkas-perakende fiyat iliĢkisi için dana eti piyasalarında uzun; koyun etinde ise kısa dönemde asimetri, yani uzun dönem parametrelerinde farklılıklar bulunmaktadır

VERTICAL PRICE TRANSMISSION IN TURKISH RED MEATMARKETS

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the nature of vertical price transmission in the meat supply chain in Turkey. The paper develops a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) to estimate long and short term price elasticities based on negative and positive price changes using monthly meat prices. The empirical analysis is carried out for two stages of meat marketing chain: from farm prices to wholesale meat prices (carcass) and from wholesale prices to retail meat prices. According to the estimation results, there is an evidence regarding vertical price transmission between red meat supply chains. The long run parameter, which indicates the effect of positive changes in carcass beef prices on retail prices, is greater than the parameter for negative changes. The loss of welfare that consumers bear due to the price increase is more than the earnings they gain due to the decrease in price. Negative shocks in both farm-carcass and carcass-retail price relations cause price increases in sheep meat markets. For the carcass-retail price relationship, there is an asymmetry in beef markets in the long run and in sheep meat markets in the short run, that is, there are differences in the long run parameters.

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