Tarımsal fiyatlarda hedefi aşma hipotezi: gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için panel ARDL analizi

Tarımsal fiyatlarda hedefi aşma hipotezi, genişletici para politikasının tarımsal fiyatlar üzerinde etkisinin kısa dönemde pozitif, uzun dönemde ise, paranın yansız -tarımsal fiyatlardaki artışın uzun dönemde para arzındaki artışa eşit- olduğunu öne sürmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, tarımsal fiyatlarda hedefi aşma hipotezinin ampirik olarak test edilmesidir. Tarımsal fiyatlarda hedefi aşma hipotezine yönelik teorik çerçeveden hareketle geliştirilen model, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan toplam yüz dokuz ülkenin 1980-2007 dönemi verileri kullanılarak, bir panel hata düzeltme yöntemi olan panel ARDL yaklaşımıyla tahmin edilmiştir. Kısa dönem analiz, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde tarımsal fiyatlarda hedefi aşma hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu ve tarımsal fiyatların uzun dönem denge değerlerine sanayi fiyatlarından daha hızlı uyarlandığını ortaya koymaktadır. Uzun dönem analiz ise, tarımsal fiyatlardaki yükselmenin uzun dönemde para arzındaki artışa eşit olmadığını, böylece paranın yansızlığı hipotezinin geçersiz olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, para ve tarımsal fiyat istikrarı politikaları açısından önemli çıkarımlar sağlamaktadır.

The overshooting hypothesis in agricultural prices: panel ARDL analysis for developed and developing countries

The overshooting hypothesis in agricultural prices argues that the impact of an expansionary monetary policy on agricultural prices is positive in the short-run and the money is neutral -the increase in agricultural prices is equal to that in money- in the long-run. The purpose of this study is to empirically test the validity of the overshooting hypothesis. The model developed within the context of the theoretical framework was estimated by means of panel ARDL approach which is a panel vector error correction method using the data from one hundred nine developed and developing countries for the period 1980-2007. The short-run analysis supports that the overshooting hypothesis in agricultural prices is hold in both the developed and the developing countries and that the agricultural prices adjust faster than industrial prices to their long-run values. The long-run analysis indicates that the rise in agricultural prices is not equal to the rise in the money supply, implying that the neutrality of the money is not valid. These findings drive important inferences for implications of monetary and agricultural price stabilization policies.

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