Para krizi modelleri: Türkiye 2001 krizi örneği

Bu makale, para krizi modellerinin yardımıyla Türkiye ekonomisindeki 2001 finansal krizinin nedenlerini araştırmaktadır. Krizin zayıf iktisadi temellere dayalı sebepleri birinci ve ikinci nesil modellerle açıklanabilirken, finansal kırılganlığa dayalı sebepleri üçüncü nesil modellerle açıklanabilmektedir. Sonuçlar; 2001 krizinin üç nesil modellerin hepsiyle alakalı yönlerinin olduğunu göstermiştir. Ancak,finansal kırılganlığın Şubat 2001’deki para krizinin finansal krize dönüşmesinde önemli bir rol oynadığını özellikle belirtmek gerekir. 2001 krizi, diğer yükselen piyasa ekonomileri için iki önemli politika dersine de sahip olmuştur. Birincisi, gelecekteki finansal krizleri önlemek üzere politikalar oluştururken, politika yapıcıların sadece güçlü iktisadi temellere yönelik tedbirleri değil, aynı zamanda sağlam bir finans sistemine yönelik tedbirleri de dikkate almaları gerektiğidir. İkincisi,sağlam bir finans sisteminin iyi işleyen sabit kur rejimlerinin önkoşulu olduğunu unutmamaları gereklidir.

Models of currency crisis: Turkey 2001 crisis case

This article examines the causes of the 2001 financial crisis in the Turkish economy with the help of the currency crisis models. While the reasons of the crisis that are based on weak economic fundamentals can be explained by the first and second generation models, the reasons that are based on financial fragility can be explained by the third generation models. Results showed that the 2001 crisishad relevant features with all three generations models. However, it must be especially mentioned that the financial fragility played an important role in transforming the February 2001 currency crisis into a financial crisis. 2001 crisis had two important policy lessons for other emerging market economies as well. First, in designing policies to prevent future financial crises, policymakers should not only consider measures for strong fundamentals but also measures for a sound financial system. Second, they should not forget that a sound financial system is a prerequisite for well-functioning fixed-exchange rate regimes.

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