MEHMET ÖZMEN, ÖMER İSKENDEROĞLU, HATİCE DOĞUKANLI

Gibrat yasasının geçerliliğinin panel ve dinamik panel tahmin yöntemi ile sınanması

İşletmelerin büyümelerini etkileyen birçok faktör bulunmaktadır. Bu faktörlere en genel anlamda işletmenin mevcut büyüklüğü, yaşı, sahiplik yapısı, yönetim şekli, ar-ge faaliyetlerinde bulunup bulunmaması örnek verilebilir. Bu faktörler içerisinde daha çok, işletmenin mevcut büyüklüğünü dikkate alan çalışmalar gerçekleştirilmiştir. İlk defa Gibrat (1931) tarafından araştırılan büyüme büyüklük ilişkisi, elde edilen sonuçlardan hareketle literatürde Gibrat yasası olarak yerini almıştır. Bu bağlamda, Gibrat yasası büyüme ve büyüklük arasındaki ilişkinin tesadüfî süreçler ile açıklanabildiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Diğer bir ifade ile, Gibrat yasasına göre, işletmelerin büyümeleri mevcut büyüklüklerinden bağımsızdır. Bu çalışmada, Gibrat yasasının geçerliliği, 1997 – 2006 dönemleri arası İstanbul Sanayi Odasının (ISO) belirlediği en büyük 1000 işletme içerisinden, örneklem döneminde faaliyetini sürekli sürdürmüş olan 127 işletme için sınanmıştır. Çalışmada, işletme büyüklüğünün göstergesi olarak, çalışan sayısı, net aktifler, özsermaye, üretimden satışlar değişkenleri ayrı ayrı değerlendirilerek analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Panel ve dinamik panel tahmin yönteminin kullanıldığı analizlerden elde edilen sonuçlara göre, örneklemdeki işletmeler için Gibrat yasasının geçerli olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Testing Gibrat’s law with panel and dynamic panel data approach

It is possible to find out several factors which effects firm growth. Generally size, age, ownership structure, corporate governance, research and development policy are accepted as basic factors of firm growth. The effect of firm size on firm growth is one of the most researched topics of finance literature. This topic is researched by Gibrat (1931) for the first time and replaced as Law of Gibrat with depending to its results. Gibrat’s Law emphasizes that firm size and firm growth relation can be explained as a random process. In other words, the growth rate of a given firm is independent of its size. In this study the validity of Gibrat’s law is researched on the sample of 127 companies which is registered to Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) 1000 between 1997 and 2006 continuously. With respect to previous studies, number of employment, net assets, capital employed, sales volumes are used as proxies for firm size separately. For testing Gibrats’s law, panel and dynamic panel approach is employed. According to results, Gibrats law fails to hold on the sample

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