FAİZ ORANLARI, HANEHALKI PORTFÖY SEÇİMİ VE VARLIK FİYATI DALGALANMALARI

Düşük faiz oranlar ının kredi geni şlemesi üzerinden gelir ve fiyat düzeyinde dalgalanmalara neden olabileceği literatürde uzun zamandan beri ileri sürülmektedir. Ancak özellikle 2008 küresel resesyonundan bu yana gelişmiş ülkelerin merkez bankalarının uyguladıkları düşük faiz ve niceliksel genişlemeyi içeren para politikası çerçevesinin, mal fiyatlarını dalgalandırmak yerine, gelirde ve finansal varlıkların fiyatlarında genel bir yükseliş trendi ile birlikte dalgalanmalara yol açtığı gözlenmektedir. Faiz oranları, kredi talebi ve varlık fiyatları arasında bu tür bir ilişkinin mevcudiyeti ampirik çalışmalar tarafından da desteklenmektedir. Bu çal ışmada, faiz oranı, toplam gelir ve varl ık fiyatı döngüleri arasındaki hanehalkı davranışından kaynaklanan ili şkiyi açıklamak için stok-akım tutarlı bir sistem dinamiği modeli geliştirilmiştir. Sonuçlar, ekonomiyi istikrara kavuşturan tek bir faiz oranının bulunduğunu ve politika faiz oranının bundan farklı olması halinde toplam gelirin ve varlık fiyatlarının dalgalandığını ortaya koymuştur

INTEREST RATES, HOUSEHOLD PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND ASSET PRICE CYCLES

The idea that low interest rates are the primary cause of fluctuations in output and price levels through credit expansion has long been argued in the lite rature. However, the monetary policy framework, composed of low interest rates and quantitative easing applied by the central banks of developed countries since the 1990s, caused fluc tuations in asset prices and output around a trend rather than fluctuations in the price level. The existence of such a relationship between interest rates, credit demand, and asset prices is also supported by empirical studies. In this study, we developed a stock- flow consistent system dynamics model to understand the relationship between interest rates, output, and asset price cycles arising from household behavior. Results showed that there is a unique policy interest rate that stabilizes the ec onomy, and that a deviation of the policy rate from this rate would result in fluctuations in aggregate income and asset prices.

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