Üst Rekor Değerleri Kullanılarak Porsuk Barajındaki Su Seviyesinin Tahmini
Calısmanın temel amacı ust rekor değerleri yardımıyla belirli cevresel konuların nasıl analiz edileceğini gostermektir. Bu calısmada, Eskisehir iline su sağlayan Porsuk Barajı icin 1974 Ocak - 2005 Aralık donemine ait aylara iliskin ortalama gunluk su miktarıi verileri ust rekor değerleri yardımıyla analiz edilmistir. Devlet Su Đsleri (DSI) 3. Bolge Mudurluğu’nden elde edilen veriler kullanıarak, baraja gelen ortalama gunluk su miktarlarıı ust rekor değrleri uc dağıı (Normal, Logistic, Rayleigh) yardııla tahmin edilmistir. Analiz sonucunda Mart, Nisan, Mayı ve Haziran aylarıda barajdaki su seviyesinin oldukca fazla olduğ belirlenmistir. Bu nedenle bu aylarda baraja tahmin edilen miktarlarda su gelmesi halinde barajda kontrolsuz su bıakımasıgibi onemli sorunlar olabilecektir.
Estimation Of Water Level In Porsuk Dam By Using Upper Record Values
The main purpose of this study is to show how upper record statistics help in analyzing
certain environmental issues. In this study, we analyzed the average daily water amount data from the
monthly data of the Porsuk dam which supplies water for Eskisehir between the time period of January
1974 and December 2005 by using upper record values. By using this data taken from State Hydraulic
Works (SHW) 3rd Regional Directorate, the upper record values of daily average amounts of coming
water to the dam are estimated via three probability distributions: Normal, Logistic and Rayleigh. As a
result, it has been realized that the water amount in the dam is very much in March, April, May and June.
For this reason, if the estimated amount of water comes to the dam, there could be considerable
problems, such as uncontrolled water set free for the dam.
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