TÜRKİYE’NİN DEMİRYOLU YÜK TAŞIMACILIĞI TALEBİNİN ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ İLE TAHMİNİ

Taşıma modları içinde yatırım maliyeti yüksek olmasına rağmen kütlesel taşımada navlunmaliyeti oldukça düşük olan mod demiryolu taşımacılığıdır. Demiryolunda taşınacak yük miktarınıntahmin edilmesi etkin planlama yapılmasını sağlar. Bu çalışma Türkiye’de demiryolu yüktaşımacılığına oluşacak talep modeli 1978-2018 arasındaki yıllık zaman serisi verilerini kullanarakanaliz edilmiştir. Johansen eşbütünleşme analizi ve varyans hata düzeltme modeli ile tahmininbelirleyicilerinin kısa ve uzun dönem esneklikleri tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göredemiryolu yük talebinin en önemli belirleyicisi navlun oranı olmuştur. Demiryolu yük talebininnavlun oranına göre uzun dönem ve kısa dönem esneklikleri - 0,181 ve -0,184 ile çok yakındır.Demiryolu yükü talebinin uzun dönemli dış ticaret hacmi esnekliği anlamlı ve pozitiftir, yani ticarethacmi arttıkça demiryoluna oluşacak yük talebi artacaktır. Fakat demiryolu yükü talebinin uzundönemli Gayrisafi Katma Değer ve Yakıt Fiyatı esneklikleri anlamlı ve negatiftir. Yani budeğişkenlerdeki artık demiryolu yük talebini azaltacaktır. Hata düzeltme modeline göre demiryoluyük talebindeki herhangi bir son dönem sapmasının 55%’i bir yıl içinde düzeltilmekte ve uzundönem denge ilişkisi eski haline gelebilmektedir.

FORECASTING OF TURKEY’S DEMAND FOR RAILWAY FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION WİTH TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Among the transportation modes,it is the type of railway transportation that has a very low freight cost in mass transportation, although the investment cost is high. Estimating the amount of load to be carried on the rail provides effective planning for managers. This study was analyzed using annual time series data between 1978-2018 will consist of rail freight demand in Turkey. The short and long term flexibility of the estimation was estimated with the Johansen cointegration analysis and error correction model. According to the results obtained, the most important determinant of the rail freight demand was the freight rate. According to the freight rate of the rail freight demand, the long-term and short-term elasticities are almost the same as - 0.181 and -0.184. The long-term trade volume flexibility of the demand for rail freight is meaningful and positive, meaning that the demand for the rail will increase as the trade volume increases. However, the longterm Gross Value Added and Fuel Price elasticities of the demand for the railway load are significant and negative. In other words, these variables will now reduce the demand for rail freight. According to the error correction model, 55% of any last-term deviation in the rail freight demand is corrected within a year and the long-term balance relationship can be restored.

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