Ekonomik Risklerin Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Üzerine Etkisi: Kırılgan Ekonomilerden Kanıtlar

Gelişmekte olan ülkeler sahip oldukları kaynakların kıtlığı nedeniyle sermaye birikimi ve teknolojik gelişmişlik açısından yetersiz olmalarından dolayı bu ülkeler doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara gelişmiş ülkelere göre daha çok ihtiyaç duyarlar. Ancak doğrudan yabancı yatırım karar sürecinde en önemli faktör olarak tercih edilecek olan ülkenin ekonomik risk düzeyini gösterebiliriz. Buradan hareketle, bu çalışmanın amacı kırılgan ekonomilerin (Arjantin, Brezilya, Endonezya, Güney Afrika, Hindistan, Rusya, Şili ve Türkiye) 1996-2019 döneminde ekonomik risk ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasındaki ilişkisini incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, çalışmada dinamik panel veri analizi kullanılmıştır. Dinamik panel veri analizinden elde edilen bulgulara göre, ekonomik riskin alt kalemleri olan reel GSYH’deki büyüme, enflasyon oranı, bütçe dengesi/GSYİH ve cari açık/GSYİH, doğrudan yabancı yatırımları etkilerken kişi başına gayrisafi yurt içi hâsıla doğrudan yabancı yatırımları etkilememektedir. Çalışma sonuçlarının politika yapıcılar açısından önemli bilgiler içerdiğini söyleyebiliriz.

The Effect of Economic Risks on Foreign Direct Investments: Evidence from Fragile Economies

Developing countries need foreign direct investments more than developed countries because they are insufficient in terms of capital accumulation and technological development due to the scarcity of resources they have. However, we can indicate the economic risk level of the country to be preferred as the most important factor in the foreign direct investment decision process. From this point of view, the aim of this study is to examine the relationship between economic risk and foreign direct investment in the 1996-2019 period of fragile economies (Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India, Russia, Chile and Turkey). For this purpose, dynamic panel data analysis is used in the study. According to the findings obtained from the dynamic panel data analysis, while the growth in real GDP, inflation rate, budget balance/GDP and current account deficit/GDP, which are the sub-items of economic risk, affect foreign direct investments, per capita gross domestic product does not affect foreign direct investments. We can say that the results of the study contain important information for policy makers.

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