Ekonomik Büyüme, İnovasyon, Verimlilik ve Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketiminin Çevre Kirliliği Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye için Çevresel Kuznets Hipotezinin Analizi

Ekonomik büyüme ile çevresel kalite arasındaki ilişki literatürde genellikle Grossman ve Krueger (1991) tarafından geliştirilen Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (ÇKE) hipotezi altında incelenmektedir. ÇKE, kişi başına düşen milli gelir ile çevresel kalite arasında ters U şeklinde bir ilişki olduğunu gösteren eğridir. Bu hipoteze göre, ekonomiler ilk aşamada, belirli bir noktaya kadar doğal çevreye zarar verme eğilimindedir. Ancak, zaman içerisinde belirli noktaya ulaşıldıktan sonra bu durum tersine dönmekte ve çevresel kalite artmaya başlamaktadır. Klasik ÇKE modeli başlangıçta bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemiş olsa da zamanla modele ülkelerin gelişimleri ile ilgili değişkenler dahil edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1980-2018 dönemi için ekonomik büyüme, inovasyon, verimlilik, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve çevre kirliliği arasındaki ilişki ÇKE hipotezi kapsamında araştırılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki Bootstrap ARDL yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. Bulgular, Türkiye’de ÇKE hipotezinin geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri bootstrap nedensellik testiyle araştırılmıştır. Sonuçlar, ekonomik büyüme ve yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminden çevre kirliliğine doğru ve çevre kirliliğinden inovasyona doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir.

The Impact of Economic Growth, Innovation, Efficiency and Renewable Energy Consumption on Environmental Pollution: Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Hypothesis for Turkey

The relationship between economic growth and environmental quality is generally examined in the literature under the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis developed by Grossman and Krueger (1991). The EKC is a curve showing an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita income and environmental quality. According to this hypothesis, economies tend to harm the natural environment up to a certain point in the first stage. However, after reaching a certain point in time, this situation is reversed and environmental quality begins to increase. Although the classical EKC model initially examined the relationship between these two variables, variables related to the development of countries were included in the model over time. In this study, the relationship between economic growth, innovation, efficiency, renewable energy consumption, and environmental pollution in Turkey for the period 1980-2018 was investigated within the scope of the EKC hypothesis. The long-run relationship between variables is examined using the Bootstrap ARDL method. The findings show that the EKC hypothesis is not valid for Turkey. In addition, the causal relationships between variables are investigated with the bootstrap causality test. The results show that there is a unidirectional causality relationship from economic growth and renewable energy consumption to environmental pollution and from environmental pollution to innovation.

___

Akbostancı, E., Türüt-Aşık, S., ve Tunç, G. İ. (2009). The relationship between income and environment in Turkey: Is there an Environmental Kuznets Curve?. Energy Policy, 37(3), 861-867.

Álvarez-Herránz, A., Balsalobre, D., Cantos, J. M., ve Shahbaz, M. (2017). Energy innovations-GHG emissions nexus: fresh empirical evidence from OECD countries. Energy Policy, 101, 90-100.

Amri, F., Zaied, Y. B., ve Lahouel, B. B. (2019). ICT, total factor productivity, and carbon dioxide emissions in Tunisia. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 146, 212-217.

Aydın, M. (2019). İnsani gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye üzerine ampirik bir çalışma. Research Journal of Politics, Economics & Management/Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Arastirmalari Dergisi, 7(4).

Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Shahbaz, M., Jabbour, C. J. C., ve Driha, O. M. (2019). The role of energy innovation and corruption in carbon emissions: Evidence based on the EKC hypothesis. In Energy and Environmental Strategies in the Era of Globalization (pp. 271-304). Springer, Cham.

Bilgili, F., Koçak, E., ve Bulut, Ü. (2016). The dynamic impact of renewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions: a revisited Environmental Kuznets Curve approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 54, 838-845.

Bölük, G., ve Mert, M. (2015). The renewable energy, growth and environmental Kuznets curve in Turkey: an ARDL approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 587-595.

British Petroleum (BP) Energy, (2016), Outlook to 2035, British Petroleum.

Canbay, Ş. (2019). Türkiye'de iktisadi büyüme ile yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin çevre kirliliği üzerindeki etkileri. Maliye Dergisi, 176, 140-151.

Çağlar, A. E., ve Mehmet, M. E. R. T. (2017). Türkiye'de çevresel Kuznets Hipotezi ve yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin karbon salımı üzerine etkisi: Yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme yaklaşımı. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(1), 21-38.

Dauda, L., Long, X., Mensah, C. N., ve Salman, M. (2019). The effects of economic growth and innovation on CO 2 emissions in different regions. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(15), 15028-15038.

Dickey, D.A. ve W.A. Fuller (1979), Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427–431.

Dong, K., Sun, R., ve Hochman, G. (2017). Do natural gas and renewable energy consumption lead to less CO2 emission? Empirical evidence from a panel of BRICS countries. Energy, 141, 1466-1478.

Erdogan, S., Okumus, I., ve Guzel, A. E. (2020). Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in OECD countries: the role of renewable, non-renewable energy, and oil prices. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-9.

Gill, A. R., Viswanathan, K. K., ve Hassan, S. (2018). A test of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for carbon emission and potential of renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) in Malaysia. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 20(3), 1103-1114.

Gormus, S., ve Aydin, M. (2020). Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis using innovation: new evidence from the top 10 innovative economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International.

Grossman, G. M., ve Krueger, A. B. (1991). Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement (No. w3914). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Hacker, R. S., ve Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500.

Haider, S., ve Ganaie, A. A. (2017). Does energy efficiency enhance total factor productivity in case of India?. OPEC Energy Review, 41(2), 153-163.

Loganathan, N., Mursitama, T. N., Pillai, L. L. K., Khan, A., ve Taha, R. (2020). The effects of total factor of productivity, natural resources and green taxation on CO2 emissions in Malaysia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-12.

López-Menéndez, A. J., Pérez, R., ve Moreno, B. (2014). Environmental costs and renewable energy: Re-visiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Journal of Environmental Management, 145, 368-373.

Lorente, D. B., ve Alvarez-Herranz, A. (2016). An approach to the effect of energy innovation on environmental Kuznets curve: An introduction to inflection point. Bulletin of Energy Economics, 4(3), 224-233.

Mazzanti, M., ve Zoboli, R. (2009). Environmental efficiency and labour productivity: Trade-off or joint dynamics? A theoretical investigation and empirical evidence from Italy using NAMEA. Ecological Economics, 68(4), 1182-1194.

McNown, R., Sam, C. Y., ve Goh, S. K. (2018). Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509-1521.

Nelson RR (1996) The sources of economic growth. Harvard University Press, MA

Ozturk, I., ve Acaravci, A. (2013). The long-run and causal analysis of energy, growth, openness and financial development on carbon emissions in Turkey. Energy Economics, 36, 262-267.

OECD, https://stats.oecd.org/viewhtml.aspx?datasetcode=AIR_GHG&lang=en (Erişim tarihi: 19.09.2021)

Pata, U. K. (2018). Renewable energy consumption, urbanization, financial development, income and CO2 emissions in Turkey: testing EKC hypothesis with structural breaks. Journal of Cleaner Production, 187, 770-779.

Pata, U. K., ve Aydin, M. (2020). Testing the EKC hypothesis for the top six hydropower energy-consuming countries: Evidence from Fourier Bootstrap ARDL procedure. Journal of Cleaner Production, 121699.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.

Phillips, P.C.B. ve P. Perron (1988), Testing for unit roots in time series regression, Biometrika, 75, 335-346.

Rodríguez, M. C., Haščič, I., ve Souchier, M. (2018). Environmentally adjusted multifactor productivity: methodology and empirical results for OECD and G20 countries. Ecological Economics, 153, 147-160.

Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.

Romer, P. M. (1994). The origins of endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), 3-22.

Schumpeter, J. A. (1942). Capitalism, socialism and democracy (1976 ed.). New York: Harper & Row

Shahbaz, M., Nasir, M. A., ve Roubaud, D. (2018). Environmental degradation in France: the effects of FDI, financial development, and energy innovations. Energy Economics, 74, 843-857.

Solow, R. M. (1957). Technical change and the aggregate production function. The review of Economics and Statistics, 312-320.

Zoundi, Z. (2017). CO2 emissions, renewable energy and the Environmental Kuznets Curve, a panel cointegration approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 72, 1067-1075.