Can APAYDIN, Aslı Seda KURT

TÜRKİYE İÇİN İTHALAT TALEP FONKSİYONU TAHMİNİ (1970-2016)

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye için ithalat talep fonksiyonunu ARDL sınır testi yöntemiyle ve esneklikler yardımıyla tahmin emektir. Çalışmada kullanılan zaman serileri OECD ve FRED veri tabanlarından edinilen ithalat, reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve reel efektif döviz kurudur. Bu seriler 1970-2016 arasını kapsayan yıllık serilerdir. Çalışmanın sonunda ithalat, reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve reel efektif döviz kuru arasında eş bütünleşme saptanmıştır. Ayrıca ithalatın gelir esnekliği beklenildiği gibi pozitif (0,872) ve reel döviz kuru esnekliği de negatif (-0,629) hesaplanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

ARDL Sınır Testi, Eş Bütünleşme, İthalat Talep Fonksiyonu

ESTIMATION OF IMPORT DEMAND FUNCTION FOR TURKEY (1970-2016)

The aim of this study is to estimate import demand function for Turkey with ARDL bound testing method and by means of elasticities. Time series that are used in this study are import, gross domestic product and real effective exchange rate, which are obtained from database of the OECD and FRED. These series are annual that includes between 1970 and 2016. At the end of the study, cointegration have been determined among import, gross domestic product and real effective exchange rate. Besides, as it is expected, income elasticity of import have been calculated as positive (0.872) and real exchange rate elasticity of import as negative (-0.629).

Keywords:

ARDL Bound Test, Cointegration, Import Demand Function,

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