Ticaret Akımlarının Yapısal Çekim Modeli ile Sınanması: Türkiye Örneği

Bu araştırma, Türkiye’nin dış ticaret akımlarını hem Tinbergen’in (1962) temel çekim modeli hem de Anderson & van Wincoop’un (2003) yapısal çekim modeli kapsamında sınamayı hedeflemektedir. Bu amaçla Türkiye’nin 139 ticaret partneriyle olan ticaret ilişkisi, 2010-2018 döneminde EKK, FGLS ve NLS yöntemleriyle tahmin edilmiştir. Ayrıca ülke-spesifik sabit etkiler modeliyle küresel çaptaki ticaret yapısı yine 2010-2018 dönemini kapsayacak şekilde 140 ülke ile sınanmıştır. Analizde mesafe, dil birliği, sınır ilişkisi, denize kıyısı olmama durumu gibi doğal ticaret maliyetlerinin ve tarife oranlarının ve gümrük birliklerin hacim etkileri tahmin edilmiştir. Yapısal çekim modeli kapsamında çok yönlü direnç terimleri analize dâhil edilmiştir. Çok yönlü direnç terimleri; uzaklık endeksleri, ülke-spesifik sabit etkiler modeli ve bu çalışmada önerilen ithalat fiyat endeksleri ile temsil edilmiştir. Sonuçlara göre ihracatçı ve ithalatçı ülkenin milli gelirleri, gümrük birliği durumu, dil birliği, uzaklık endeksleri, ithalatçı fiyat endeksleri ve sınır ilişkisi ticareti pozitif etkilerken; mesafe ve denize kıyısı olmama durumu ticareti negatif etkilemektedir. Tarife oranlarının ise ticarete belirgin bir etkisi görünmemiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yapısal çekim modeli, Çok yönlü direnç terimleri, Ülke-spesifik sabit etkiler modeli

Estimating Trade Flows with Structural Gravity Model: Case of Turkey

This research aims to estimate Turkey’s trade flows within the context of Tinbergen’s (1962) basic gravity model and Anderson & van Wincoop’s (2003) structural gravity model. For this purpose, trade relations of Turkey with its 139 partners have been estimated by using OLS, FGLS and NLS methods for 2010–2018 times period. Also, structure of the global trade structure of 140 countries is estimated by country specific fixed effects model for the same 2010–2018 times period. Volume effects of tariff rates and natural trade impediments such as distance, common language, border relations and state of landlockedness have been estimated in the analysis. Multilateral resistance terms are included into the analysis within the context of structural gravity model. Multilateral resistance terms are proxied with remoteness indexes, country-specific fixed effects model and a multilateral resistance index that have been derived in this research. According to results, while national incomes of exporter and importer country, custom union, common language, remoteness indexes, import price indexes and common border have positive effects on trade, distance and being a landlocked country have negative effects on trade. Tariff rates don’t appear to have a distinctive effect on trade.

Keywords:

Structural gravity model, Multilateral resistance terms, Country-specific fixed effects model,

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