Bulanık suda balık avlamak: trickle-down etkisinin türkiye ekonomisinde bölgeler arası-tahmini

Özet: Neoliberal teori; eşitsizliklerin, düşük gelir gruplarına doğru trickle-down mekanizması vasıtasıyla telafi edilebileceğini öne sürmesine rağmen, gerçek dünya deneyimleri nüfusun büyük bir kısmının ekonomik büyümenin faydalarına ulaşmakta başarısız olduğunu göstermiştir. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ekonomisinde 12 alt-bölge itibariyle trickle-down etkisinin geçerliliğini panel veri analizlerini kullanarak incelemektir. Tesadüfî etkili model tahmin sonuçları, zengin ve yoksul sınıfın gelirlerinde meydana gelen bir artışın diğer grubun gelirini artırdığını göstermiştir. Bununla birlikte, yoksul sınıftan zengin sınıfa doğru gelir transferinin yarattığı katkının, zengin sınıfın yarattığı gelir transfer katkısına kıyasla daha baskın olduğu da açıkça belirtilebilir. Dolayısıyla, trickle-down etkisinin Türkiye ekonomisi itibariyle geçerli olmadığı aşikârdır.

Fishing in troubled waters: the ınter-regional estimation of trickle-down effect in turkish economy

Abstract: Although neoliberal theory asserts that inequality would be offset by a trickle-down mechanism to lower income groups, the experiences of the real world have shown that most of the population in countries have failed to reach benefits from income growth. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the validity of trickle-down effect by using panel data analysis for 12 sub-regions in the period of 2006-2012 in Turkish economy. The estimation results of random effect model point out that an increase in the incomes of the rich raises the incomes of the poor and vice versa. Nevertheless it can be clearly said that the contribution of the income transfer of the poor to the rich is more dominant than the contribution of the other class. Hence, the invalidity of trickle-down effect is obvious in Turkey.

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