Maliye Politikalarının Çevresel Bozulmaya Asimetrik Etkisi: Türkiye için NARDL Modelinden Kanıtlar

Maliye politikası aracı olan kamu harcamalarının çevresel bozulma üzerindeki etkisini araştıran bu çalışmada, Türkiye için 1970-2020 yıllarına ait veriler kullanılarak NARDL modeline dayalı bir analiz gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu yaklaşım kamu harcamaları yönünden genişletici ve daraltıcı maliye politikasının çevresel bozulma üzerine etkilerini ayrıştırma özelliğine sahiptir. Ayrıca hem kısa hem de uzun dönem için katsayı tahminlerini ortaya koymaktadır. Ulaşılan bulgular, genişletici maliye politikasının uzun dönemde CO2 emisyonlarını azalttığını göstermiştir. Buna karşılık, daraltıcı maliye politikasının CO2 emisyonları üzerinde uzun dönemde anlamlı bir etkisi olmadığı görülmüştür. Bu sonuca göre Türkiye'deki kamu harcamalarının çevresel kirliliğe herhangi bir olumlu katkı sağlamadığı belirlenmiştir. Ek olarak, gelirdeki artışın uzun dönemde CO2 emisyonlarını arttırdığı tespit edilse de Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerli olmadığı görülmüştür. Fosil yakıt tüketimi teorik beklentiye uygun olarak hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde CO2 emisyonlarını artırmaktadır. Bu açıdan yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının önceliklendirilmesinin çevresel bozulmayı azaltmak için bir gereklilik olduğu vurgulanmalıdır. Öte yandan, kamu harcamalarının kısa dönemde CO2 emisyonları üzerinde herhangi bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. Türkiye’de kamu harcamalarının çevresel kirlilik üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmek için asimetrik bir yaklaşımın kullanılmasına dair literatüründeki boşluğun doldurulmasında çalışmanın önemli katkısı olduğu düşünülmektedir. Ayrıca Türkiye bağlamında elde edilen bulgular hem araştırmacılar hem de kamu otoriteleri için değerlidir. Özellikle çevre dostu ve çevresel bozulmayı azaltıcı nitelikteki maliye politikalarının uygulanmasına dikkat edilmelidir. Ek olarak çevresel kalitenin arttırılması için yenilenebilir enerji kullanımı daha yüksek düzeyde teşvik edilmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Maliye Politikası, CO2 Emisyonu, Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL

Asymmetric Impact of Fiscal Policies on Environmental Deterioration: Evidence from the NARDL Model for Türkiye

In this study, an analysis based on the NARDL model has been conducted using data from 1970 to 2020 to investigate the impact of fiscal policy tool, public expenditures, on environmental degradation. This approach has the capability of dissecting the effects of expansionary and contractionary fiscal policies related to public expenditures on environmental degradation and provides coefficient estimations for both short and long run. The results suggest that expansionary fiscal policy leads to a reduction in CO2 emissions in the long run. In contrast, it has been observed that contractionary fiscal policy does not have a significant impact on CO2 emissions in the long run. Accordingly, it has been determined that public expenditures in Turkey do not contribute positively to environmental pollution. Moreover, although an increase in income is associated with increased CO2 emissions in the long run, the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is not confirmed for Turkey. Fossil fuel consumption, as theoretically anticipated, raises CO2 emissions in both the short and long run. Thus, prioritizing the use of renewable energy sources becomes a necessity to mitigate environmental degradation. Additionally, public expenditures have no short-run impact on CO2 emissions. The study is believed to make an important contribution by addressing the gap in the literature through the application of an asymmetric approach to analyze the influence of public expenditures on environmental pollution in the context of Turkey. Furthermore, the obtained findings for Turkey are considered valuable for both researchers and governmental authorities. It is imperative to pay heed to the implementation of environmentally conscious and pollution-reducing fiscal policies. Furthermore, the promotion of renewable energy utilization should be emphasized to enhance environmental quality.

Keywords:

Fiscal Policy, CO2 Emissions, Nonlinear ARDL,

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