YÜKSEK TEKNOLOJİLİ ÜRÜN İHRACATI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: AB-15 ÜLKELERİ İÇİN PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Bu çalışma, 1998-2017 dönemini dikkate alarak Avrupa Birliği (AB)-15 ülkelerinde yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini hem kısa hem de uzun vade için araştırmaktadır. Veri seti, Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GDP), Yüksek Teknoloji İhracatı (HT), İşgücü (LF) ve Gayri Safi Sabit Sermaye Oluşumu (PC) değişkenlerinden oluşmaktadır. Analizler için Dumitrescu & Hurlin (2012) Granger Panel Nedensellik Testi, Westerlund ECM Panel Eşbütünleşme Testi ve MG Tahmin Edicisi kullanılmıştır. Kısa vadeli analiz sonuçları (a) HT ve GDP, (b) LF ve GDP, (c) PC ve GDP, (d) LF ve HT , (e) LF ve PC değişkenleri arasında çift yönlü ve (f) HT'den PC'ye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ortaya koymuştur. Uzun vadeli sonuçlara göre, (i) HT'de %1'lik artış GDP'de %0.34'lük artışa, (ii) LF'de %1'lik artış GDP'de %7.4'lük artışa, (iii) PC'de %1'lik artış GDP'de %0.33'lük artışa neden olmaktadır. Sonuç olarak bu çalışma, yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatının sadece ekonomik büyüme üzerinde değil aynı zamanda brüt sabit sermaye oluşumu ve istihdam üzerinde de önemli bir etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymuştur.

HIGH-TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR EU-15 COUNTRIES

This study investigates the relationship between high-tech product exportsand economic growth in EU-15 countries between 1998-2017. The dataset iscomposed of gross domestic product (GDP), high-technology exports (HT), laborforce (LF), and gross fixed capital formation (PC). Dumitrescu & HurlinCausality, Westerlund Cointegration and MG Estimator employed for theanalyses. Analysis of short-term outcomes revealed a bidirectional causalrelationship between (a) HT and GDP, (b) LF and GDP, (c) PC and GDP, (d) LFand HT, (e) LF and PC, and (f) a unidirectional causality from HT to PC.Moreover, (i) a 1% raise in HT causes a 0.49 % increase in GDP, (ii) a 1% raisein LF causes a 0.22 % increase in GDP, (iii) a 1% raise in PC causes a 0.48 %increase in GDP. The long-term causal analyses shows that (i) a 1% raise in HTcauses a 0.34 % increase in GDP, (ii)a 1% raise in LF causes a 7.4 % increasein GDP, (iii) a 1% raise in PC causes a 0.33% increase in GDP. High-techproduct exports have a significant impact not only on economic growth, but alsoon gross fix capital formation and employment.

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