Türkiye Ekonomisine İlişkin Bir Makroekonometrik Model Üzerinde Bifurkasyon Analizi

Bifurkasyon teorisi, dinamik sistemlerin analizi için önemli bir araçtır. Dinamik makroekonomik sistemler, belirli koşullar altında parametre değerleri değiştiğinde belirli türlerde bifurkasyonlar gösterebilir. Bu çalışmada, Aysoy ve Kıpıcı (2005) tarafından geliştirilen Türkiye Ekonomisi Makroekonometrik Modeli kullanılarak, Türk ekonomisinde bifurkasyona yol açan faktörler incelenmiştir. Modelin, tahmin edilen parametreleri %95 güven aralığında değiştiğinde sabit durum ve periyot katlayan-2 bifurkasyonları sergilediği görülmüştür. Enflasyon oranı parametresindeki değişim, her iki bifurkasyon türüne yol açarken, devalüasyon oranı ve beklenen enflasyon parametrelerindeki değişim sadece kararlı durumda bifurkasyonuna yol açmaktadır.

Bifurcation Analysis on a Macroeconometric Model for Turkey’s Economy

Bifurcation theory is an important tool for the analysis of dynamical systems. Dynamic macroeconomic systems can exhibit certain types of bifurcation when parameter values change under certain conditions. In this study, using the Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of Turkish Economy developed by Aysoy and Kıpıcı (2005), the determinants causing the bifurcations in the Turkish economy are examined. It has been observed that the Model exhibits steady-state and period-doubling 2 bifurcations when the predicted parameters are changed within 95% confidence interval. While the change in the inflation rate parameter causes both types of bifurcation, the changes in the devaluation rate and the expected inflation parameters only cause steady-state bifurcation.

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