Özer DEPREN, Serpil KILIÇ DEPREN, Mustafa Tevfik KARTAL

COVID-19 Pandemi Sürecinde Para Politikası TedbirleriDöviz Kurları Üzerinde Etkili mi? Türkiye’den Kanıtlar

Çalışma, pandemiye yönelik para politikası tedbirlerini dikkate alarak Türkiye’de döviz kurlarının pandemiden nasıl etkilendiğini incelemektedir. Seçilmiş döviz kurları, para politikası göstergeleri ve pandemi rakamlarını içeren 10 bağımsız değişken kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Bu kapsamda, pandemi öncesi ve pandemi dönemlerinden oluşan 1 Şubat 2019 ve 31 Ağustos 2020 arasındaki günlük veriler dikkate alınmış ve makine öğrenmesi algoritmaları uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, pandemi ve para politikası tedbirlerinin döviz kurları üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve yüksek bir etkiye sahip olduğunu ve bağımsız değişkenlerin döviz kurları üzerindeki etkisinin dönemlere göre farklılık gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, para politikası tedbirlerinin pandemi döneminde için Türkiye’deki döviz kurları üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve yüksek bir etkiye sahip olması nedeniyle, pandemi ve para politikası tedbirlerinin döviz kurları üzerindeki önemi vurgulanmaktadır.

Do Monetary Policy Measures Affect Foreign Exchange Rates during the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from Turkey

The study examines how foreign exchange (FX) rates in Turkey are affected by the pandemic considering the impacts of monetary policy responses to the pandemic. Selected FX rates are examined by using 10 independent variables containing monetary policy indicators and the pandemic figures. In this context, daily data from February 1, 2019 to August 31, 2020 that consists of the pre-pandemic and the pandemic periods are considered and machine learning algorithms are applied. The findings reveal that the pandemic and monetary policy indicators have a statistically significant and high effect on the FX rates, and the influence of independent factors on the FX rates vary according to the periods. According to the results of the study, it is emphasized the importance of the pandemic and monetary policy measures on the FX rates because monetary policy indicators have a statistically significant and high impact on the FX rates in Turkey for the pandemic period.

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