Reel Sektör Kur Riski İle Kredi Riski İlişkisinin Türk Bankacılık Sektörü Açısından Değerlendirilmesi

Uluslararası yatırımcılar ve kuruluşlar tarafından reel sektörün kur riski Türkiye açısından alışagelmiş bir eleştiri konusudur. Söz konusu eleştirinin en önemli dayanağının TCMBnin yayımladığı veriler olduğu görülmektedir. Reel sektörün mali tablolarına baktığımızda döviz açığına maruz kaldığı reddedilemez bir gerçek olmasına karşın bunun neden olduğu riskin bankalara kredi riski olarak sirayet etmesini engelleyen pek çok mekanizma söz konusudur. Gelecekteki nakit akışları döviz cinsinden olması sebebiyle doğal hedge mekanizmasına sahip olan proje kredileri kullanan firmalar, maruz kaldıkları kur riskini hedge eden kurumsal firmaların gerçek finansal durumu bu makalede analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda net pozisyon açığının en az 30 milyar doları bu mekanizmalarla hedge edildiğine ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca bankalarda kur kaynaklı kredi riskine yönelik geliştirilen tahsis, teminat, izleme prosedürleri ve bu alanlardaki tecrübelerin uygulamaya dönüşmüş olması söz konusu riskin yönetimini daha iyi hale getirdiği sonucuna varılmıştır.

The Evaluation of The Relation Between Currency Risk in Non-Financial Firms and Credit Risk for Turkish Banking Sector

The currency risk of non-financial companies in Turkey is continuously criticized by foreign investors and international organizations. It is known that the most important foundation of this criticism is the data published by Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. When financial reports of non-financial companies are examined, it is seen that foreign exchange exposure is irrefutable fact. However, there are many mechanisms which prevent this risk to transform currency-induced credit risk in banks. In this essay, the real financial position of firms which use project loans and have natural hedge mechanisms, and which hedge currency risks via derivatives are analyzed. According to the result of analysis, the least of 30 billion USD of net foreign position of non-financial companies are hedged by this way. Besides, it is concluded that collection, collateral and monitoring procedures in banks improve currency-induced credit risk management.

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