JEOPOLİTİK VE JEOEKONOMİK PERSPEKTİFTEN LNG-BORU HATLARI REKABETİNİN AVRUPA ENERJİ GÜVENLİĞİNE ETKİLERİ

Dünya birincil enerji karmasında ilk üçte yer alan doğal gaza yönelik talebin fiyatların düşmesi, arz bolluğu ve karbon emisyonunu azaltmadaki rolü nedeniyle orta ve uzun vadede petrol ve kömürden daha hızlı artması beklenmektedir. Üstelik bu tahminlere göre; büyüme oranının geçtiğimiz 17 yılla aynı olması durumunda bile gelecek 25 yıl içinde doğal gaz talebinde % 50’lik artış olacaktır. Doğal gaz pazarında rekabeti derinleştiren bu durum yapısal dönüşüm sürecinin tetikleyicisi olmuştur. Yapısı itibari ile bölgesel bir görünüm arz eden ve devletlerin ana aktörler olduğu doğal gaz pazarı LNG talebinin önlenemez yükselişine bağlı olarak küreselleşme doğrultusunda evrilmektedir. Başlangıçta coğrafi imkânsızlıkları aşmak için geliştirilen LNG günümüzde boru gazının rakibi durumuna gelmiştir. LNG’nin payı yeni arz ve talep ülkelerinin ortaya çıkmasıyla hızlı bir şekilde artmaktadır. Boru gazı ve LNG arasındaki fiyat makasının LNG lehine bozulmasıyla birlikte kaynak çeşitlendirmesi arayışında olan ülkeler için LNG makul bir seçenek haline gelmiştir. Boru hatlarının yarattığı karşılıklı bağımlılık ilişkisinde “hassas” konumda olan ülkelerin LNG taleplerinin artışa geçmesi mevcut ve planlanan boru hatlarının akıbetlerini tartışmalı hale getirmiştir. Gelecek 25 yılda LNG talebinin iki katı artarak pazar payının %40- %45 oranına yükseleceği öngörülmektedir. Bu nedenle çalışma LNG ve boru gazı arasındaki rekabeti tetikleyen jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik unsurlara odaklanacaktır. Çalışmada LNG-boru gazı rekabetinin yeni boru hattı yatırımlarına etkisi sorgulanacaktır. Bu amaçla, Rusya’nın yeni boru hattı projeleri Kuzey Akım-2 ve Türk Akımı-2’nin geleceği sorgulanacaktır. İçerik analizi yönteminin kullanılacağı çalışmada doğal gaz piyasasının içinde bulunduğu evrim sürecine de yer verilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

LNG, boru gazı, boru hatları, Kuzey Akım, Türk Akımı, enerji güvenliği

THE GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOECONOMIC IMPACT OF LNG AND PIPELINE COMPETITION ON EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY

The demand for natural gas demand is expected to increase more rapidly than coal and oil in the middle and long-term due to the decline of prices, the abundance of supply, and the initiatives for reducing the carbon emission: Moreover, predictions suggest a 50% increase in natural gas demand over the next 25 years even for the worst case scenario where the growth rate remains at the same level as it did for the last 17 year: This situation deepened the competition in the natural gas market to the point of triggering a structural transformation process in the market. The natural gas market that used to have a regional outlook by its structure, currently evolves in the direction of globalization due to the inevitable rise of the LNG demand. Originally developed to exceed geographical impossibilities, LNG has become a rival of the pipeline. The share of LNG is rapidly increasing with the emergence of new supply and demand center: LNG has become a viable option for countries seeking to diversify resources with price distortions between pipe gas and LNG in favor of LNG. Countries that have a "sensitive" interdependence relation due to existing pipeline infrastructures, are undergoing a surge in LNG demand and the current and planned pipelines are becoming increasingly controversial. It is predicted that the market share will increase to 40% -45% by doubling the LNG demand in the next 25 year: For this reason, the proposed study will focus on geopolitical and geoeconomic factors that trigger competition between LNG and pipeline ga: In the study, the impact of LNG-pipe gas competition on new pipeline investments will be questioned. For this purpose, the future of Russia's new pipeline projects, North Stream-2 and Turkish Stream-2, will be questioned. The evolution process in the natural gas market will also be included in the content of analysis method.

Keywords:

LNG, pipeline gas, pipelines, North Stream, Turkish Stream, Energy Security,

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