Constructing the new growth model for Uzbekistan's economy
Küresel finansal kriz süresince gelişmiş ülkeler gelişmekte olan ülkelere nazaran çok daha düşük kişi başı gelir büyüme oranları göstermiştir. Bu olay, sadece içsel büyüme teorileriyle açıklanabilir. Geçtiğimiz yüzyılın son 10 yılında gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki bilgi birikimi yüksek gelirli ülkelerden daha hızlı gerçekleşmiştir. Bu yüzden, Özbekistan’daki bilgi birikimi büyüme hızının mevcut durumunun analizi zorunlu bir görevdir. Bu araştırma, yerel bilgi üretimi ve/veya yurtdışından farklı bilgi birikimiyle teşvik edilen ekonomik büyümeyi baz alarak açık ekonomiye göre Yeni Büyüme Modeli geliştirmektedir. Model, uzun dönemde ülke kişi başı gelir oranındaki düzenli büyümenin beşeri sermayedeki büyüme oranlarına dayandığı sonucuna varmaktadır. Ülkelerin bilgi endeksleri, Dünya Bankası tarafından seçilen değişkenlerin normalleştirilmiş değerlerinden hesaplanmaktadır. Deneysel bulgular, Modelin de öngördüğü gibi, yüksek endekslere sahip ülkelerin yüksek kişi başı gelire (veya tam tersi) sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Beşeri sermayeden ziyade toplam bilgi birikimindeki değişmeler ülke refahındaki artışa daha fazla etki etmektedir. Model, yurtdışından bilgi akışının da önemli pozitif etkilerinin olduğunu ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Bilgi ve iletişim teknolojileri endeksleri, ekonomik teşvikler ve eğitim endekslerine kıyasla ülkelerin ekonomik refahında çok daha büyük etkilere sahiptir. Analizler bütün temel endekslerin diğer ülkelere göre daha düşük oranlarda yükseleceğini göstermektedir. Küresel bilgi artışı rekabetindeki keskin yükseliş Özbekistan’ın bilgi birikiminde göreceli düşüşe yol açmaktadır. Model araştırmanın sonuçları, dış ticaretin serbestleştirilmesi, yerel ticaretin geliştirilmesi, alan bazlı iyileştirme planları yapılması, e-hükümet ve e-ticarete geçiş, insan kaynaklarına yatırım yapılması konularında Özbekistan’a ekonomi politikası tavsiyelerinde bulunmaktadır.
Özbekistan ekonomisi için yeni büyüme modelinin oluşturulması
During the world-financial crises developed countries have been showing significantly low per-capita income growth rates comparing to emerging economies. This phenomenon can only be explained by endogenous growth theories. In the last decade of the last century new knowledge formations in developing countries occurring faster than those in high-income countries. Therefore, it is an imperative task to analyze current speed of knowledge-stock expansion in Uzbekistan. The research develops open-economy New Growth Model according to which economic growth is stimulated by domestic knowledge production and/or knowledge splits from abroad. Model concludes that the long run steady state percapita income augmentation rests on growth rates of human capital. Knowledge indices of countries are calculated from normalized values of variables chosen by World Bank. Empirical evidences prove countries with high indices to have high per-capita incomes or vice verse as predicted by the model. Changes in total knowledge stock than those in human capital tend to increase nations’ welfare more. Further validations of the model reveal knowledge-flows from abroad to have significant positive impacts. Information and Communication Technologies and Innovation indices possessed big favorable affects on economic well-being of nations in comparison to Economic Incentives and Education indices. Analyses determine all pillar indices to advance at slow rates comparing to other countries of the world. Sharp increase in global knowledge-soar-up competition tends relative knowledge stock of Uzbekistan to decline. Conclusions from the model recommended economic policy implications for Uzbekistan stressing mainly out foreign trade liberalization, domestic business-sphere improvements, area-based development plans, introducing e-government and e-business environments as well as investments in human capital.
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- ISSN: 1300-1604
- Yayın Aralığı: Yıllık
- Başlangıç: 1994
- Yayıncı: Türk İşbirliği ve Koordinasyon Ajansı Başkanlığı