Ömer YILMAZ, Haluk YERGİN, Mehmet MERCAN

Türkiye-Ab (15 Ülke) arasındaki dış ticaret ve gümrük birliği'nin marjinal endüstri-içi ticarete etkisi ve endüstri-içi ticaretle karşılaştırılması

Grubel-Lloyd yöntemine göre hesaplanan endüstri içi ticaret katsayısının (EİT) yükselmesi her zaman o sektörde EİTin artmasına işaret etmemektedir. İlgili sektörde endüstriler arası ticaretin artması da endüstri-içi ticaret katsayısının yükselmesine neden olabilmektedir. Bu nedenle, ilgili sektörde endüstri-içi ticaretin gerçek etkisini belirleyebilmek için Marjinal Endüstri İçi Ticaret Katsayısı Endeksi geliştirilmiştir. Çalışmada, AB (15 Ülke) ve Türkiye arasında 1990 -2008 dönemine ait dış ticaret ve Marjinal Endüstri-İçi Ticaret(MEİT) incelenmiş ve Gümrük Birliğinin etkileri araştırılmıştır. Türkiye AB 15 ülke arasındaki MEİT incelendiğinde 0-4 gruba ait birincil mallarda, MEİT oranlarında önemli istikrarlı değişim görülmemiş fakat dış ticaret hacminde artış kaydedilmiştir. Buna karşın 5-8 sanayi mallarında ise dış ticaret hacminde artış olmakla beraber, MEİT oranlarında değişim görülmüştür.

The effect of foreign trade and customs union between Turkey-Eu (15 Countries) into marginal intra-industry trade and its comparison with intra-industry trade

Increase in Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) co-efficient calculated according to Grubel-Lloyd model does not always indicate IIT increase in that sector. Increase in interindustry trade in the related sector may cause an increase in intra-industry trade co-efficient. Therefore, in order to define the real effect of intra-industry trade in the related sector,Marginal Intra-Industry Co-Efficient Index was developed. In the study, foreign trade and Marginal Intra-Industry Trade (MIIT) of the 1990-2008 period between EU (15 countries) and Turkey were examined, and effects of Customs Union were searched. In the MEIT analysis between Turkey-EU (15 countries), in the primary goods belonging to 0-4 group, an important stable change was not found on MIIT rates, but an increase in foreign trade volume was noted. In contrast, despite an increase in foriegn trade volume in 5-8 industrial goods, a change in MIIT rates was found.

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