Testing the Validity of Wagner's Law in Turkey: The Bounds Testing Approach

Bu makalenin amacı, Wagner yasasının Türkiye için ampirik geçerliliğini "sınır sınama yaklaşımını" kullanarak sınamaktır. Bu yaklaşım, kamu sektörü faaliyetleri ve ekonomik gelişme arasında bir uzun dönem ilişkisi olup olmadığını sınarken, eşbütünleşme smamalannın ön koşulu olarak bütünleşme derecesinin doğru belirlenmesi gereğini ortadan kaldırma olanağı tanımaktadır. Wagner yasasının ampirik incelemesi, iki adet yıllık veri öbeği ve yasanın beş ayrı ifade şekli kullanılarak yapılmıştır. 1923-2003 zaman aralığını kapsayan veri öbeğinde, genel bütçe harcama rakamları kullanılırken, 1950-2003 zaman aralığını kapsayan veri öbeğinde, konsolide bütçe harcamaları verisi kullanılmıştır. Ancak, bu çalışmada, verilerle desteklenen herhangi bir uzun dönem Wagner ilişkisinin varlığına dair bir bulguya rastlanılmamıştır. Bu sonuç, geleneksel eşbütünleşme sınamaları kullanılarak yapılmış olan çalışmalann bulgulannm aksine, Türkiye'de kamu sektörü faaliyetleri ile ekonomik gelişme arasında zayıf bir ilişkinin olduğunu göstermektedir.

Wagner Yasası'nın Türkiye'deki Geçerliliğinin Sınanması: Sınır Sınaması Yaklaşımı

The objective of this paper is to test the empirical validity of Wagner's law in Turkey by using the "bounds testing approach". This approach makes it possible to overcome the dependency of cointegration tests on the precise knowledge of the order of integration while testing the presence of a long-run relationship between government activity and economic development. The empirical investigation of Wagner's law is based on two samples of annual data and five different specifications of the law. The sample covering the period of 1923-2003 depends on general budget expenditure figures while the other, which covers the period of 1950-2003, depends on the consolidated budget expenditures data. However, in this study, no empirical evidence of a long-run Wagnerian relationship could be found supported by the data. This outcome implies a weak association between government activity and economic development in Turkey, contrary to the findings of previous studies that use conventional cointegration tests.

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