Tercihlerde Benzerlik Teorisi: Türkiye ve Bazı Komşu Ülkelerin Dış Ticareti Üzerine Bir Analiz

Karşılaştırmalı üstünlük teorisi ve daha sonra geliştirilen Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (H-O-S) modeli, ülkelerin dış ticaret yapılarında sahip oldukları üretim faktörlerinin önemi üzerinde durmuşlardır. 1950'li yıllarda başta Leontief olmak üzere diğer iktisatçılar tarafından yapılan analizler, ülkeler arasındaki dış ticaretin her zaman H-O-S modeline uygun olmadığını ortaya koymuştur. Tercihlerde benzerlik hipotezi, dış ticaret teorisinde talep olgusuna yer veren analizlerden biridir. Bu makalede tercihlerde benzerlik teorisi tanıtılmış; Türkiye ile birlikte Yunanistan Suriye ve İran'dan oluşan üç komşu ülkenin dış ticaretlerinde önemli bir paya sahip olan ülkelerle yaptıkların ticaretin bu teoriye uygun olup olmadığı belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Analize dahil edilen ülkelerin ithalat değerlerinin bağımlı değişken olarak kabul edildiği modelde; ülkelerin gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla değerleri, reel döviz kurları ve ülkelerdeki kişi başına gelir seviyeleri arasındaki benzerlik derecesini gösteren Linder değişkeni bağımsız değişkenler olarak yer almıştır. Analiz sonuçlan, ele aldığımız dört ülkenin dış ticaretinde Linder teorisinin geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymuştur.

Similarity of Preferences Theory: An Analysis on Turkish Foreign Trade and Some of its Neighboring Countries

Comparative Advantage theory and Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (H-O-S) model have stressed the role of production factors on trade structures of the countries. In the 1950s, some economic analysts, especially Leontief, showed that foreign trade between countries was not always suitable to the H-O-S model. Similarity in preferences hypothesis was one of the earlier hypotheses that considered demand in foreign trade theory. In this article, similarity in the preferences theory has been examined. Foreign trade in Turkey and her three neighbors (Greece, Syria and Iran) with important trade partners were tested to see whether the trade structure of these countries were suitable for this hypothesis. While the import values of these countries were accepted as dependent variable, gross domestic product of the countries, real exchange rates and Linder variable which shows similarity in per capita income level of the countries were accepted as independent variables in the model. The results of the analysis indicated that Linder theory was observed in the trade structure of these four countries.

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