Aslı YÜKSEL, Aydın YÜKSEL, Özdemir AKMUT

Avrupa Birliği Kararlarının IMKB'deki Hisse Senetlerinin Getiri Oranları Üzerine Etkileri

Türkiye'nin Avrupa Birliği ile ilişkileri özellikle Gümrük Birliği Anlaşması'ndan sonra yoğunluk kazanmıştır. 1990'lı yılların ikinci yarısından günümüze kadar geçen zamanda Türkiye ile ilgili çok sayıda Avrupa Komisyonu tavsiyesi ve Avrupa Konseyi ve Parlementosu kararı alınmıştır. Bu çalışma hisse senetleri piyasasının etkin olduğu varsayımından yola çıkarak Ocak 1997-Aralık 2002 döneminde Avrupa Birliği'nde Türkiye ile ilgili açıklanan tavsiye ve kararların istanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası'nda işlem gören hisse senetlerinin getiri oranlan üzerindeki etkilerini test etmektedir. Analizde ülke gündeminde hisse senedi getiri oranlannı etkileyebilecek başka bir olayın olmadığı günlerde alınan kararlar tespit edilip, çıkarımlar yapılırken bu kararlara verilen tepkiler baz alınmıştır. Test sonuçlan Avrupa Birliği'nde Türkiye ile ilgili alman kararlara beklenilen doğrultuda anlamlı tepkiler verildiği hipotezine sınırlı destek vermektedir. Bu tepkilerde genellikle sektöre bağlı bir farklılık tespit edilememiştir.

The Impact of Decision Made by the EU Insttitutions on the Returns of Stocks Traded on the ISE

The relationship between the European Union (EU) and Turkey has gained momentum after the Free Trade Agreement entered into force on January 1, 1996. Since then, many recommendations and decisions have been made by EU institutions (the European Commission, the Council of the European Union, and the European Parliament) regarding the status of Turkey's application for full membership. Based on the assumption that the Turkish stock market is an informationally efficient one, this paper examines the price reaction of stocks traded on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) to announcements of decisions made by the EÜ institutions over the time period January 1997 - December 2002. The findings in the paper are based on EU decisions free from confounding events and news. They provide limited support to the view that ISE stock prices are sensitive to the arrival of important news that may impact Turkey's prospective membership to the EU. Moreover, the data does not suggest that industry is a factor in determining the extent of reaction to such news.

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