Türkiye'de Sektörler Arası Verimlilik Farkının Enflasyon ve Reel Kur Üzerindeki Etkisi

Bu çalışma Türkiye 'de Balassa-Samuelson etkisini ampirik olarak sınamaktadır. Ba-lassa-Samuelson hipotezine göre dış ticarete açık olan sektörlerin kapalı sektörlere göre verimliliği daha hızlı artmakta, bu yüzden açık sektörlerdeki fiyat artışı kapalı sektörlere göre daha yavaş olmaktadır. Bu mekanizma genel olarak enflasyona neden olmaktadır. Bu enflasyonist etki sonucu reel kur değerlenmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye'de bu hipotezin varlığı hakkında bazı destekleyici sonuçlar bulunmuştur. Zaman serisi analizi nispi üretkenliğin nispi fiyatlar üzerinde etkisinin olduğuna dair zayıf bir destek sunmaktadır. Ayrıca Türkiye ve Almanya arasındaki reel kur, ve Türkiye'nin ve Almanya'nın nispi fiyatlarının Balassa-Samuelson hipotezinin ön gördüğü şekilde eşbütünsel ilişki içerisinde olduğu bulunmuştur.

The Impact of Productivity Difference Among Sectors on Inflation and Real Exchange Rate in Turkey

This paper empirically tests the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Turkey. According to Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, the productivity in tradable sectors increase faster than the productivity in non-tradable which causes a lower increase in the price level of tradable goods. This mechanism in general generates a higher inflation in the country. As a result of this inflationary effect the real exchange rate appreciates. This study presets some supportive evidences about the existence of this hypothesis in Turkey. Time series analysis show that relative productivities have some effect on relative prices, and real exchange rate between Turkey and Germany, relative price levels of Turkey and Germany are cointegrated as the Balassa-Samuelson conjecture foresees.

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