Türkiye'de Konut Fiyatları ile Makro Ekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkinin Araştırılması

Bu çalışma 1990-2006 dönemi için Türkiye’de makro ekonomik değişkenlerin (gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla, para arzı, kısa dönem faiz oranları ve döviz kuru) konut fiyatları üzerindeki dinamik etkilerini analiz eder. Konut fiyatları ile makro ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkisinin araştırılmasında Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi kullanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizinin sonuçları konut fiyatları ile makro ekonomik değişkenler arasında bir uzun dönem ilişkisinin varolduğunu göstermektedir. Konut fiyatları ile makro ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki kısa dönemli dinamik ilişkinin araştırılmasında Vektör Hata Düzeltme Yöntemi (VECM) kullanılmıştır. VEC Granger Nedensellik/Block Exogeneity Wald Testi sonuçları, konut fiyatları ile faiz oranı ve döviz kuru arasında iki yönlü nedenselliğin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla ve para arzından konut fiyatlarına doğru ise tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu görülmektedir.

Investigation of Relationship Between House Prices and Macroeconomic Variables in Turkey

This study analyses the dynamic effects of macroeconomic variables (i.e. gross domestic product (GDP), money supply, short-run interest rates and exchange rates) on the house prices in Turkey for the period 2000-2006. Estimates of the long run relationship between house prices and macroeconomic variables are obtained using the Johansen cointegration test. The results of cointegration analysis suggest that there exists a long run relationship between house prices and macroeconomic variables. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used to investigate of the short-run dynamic relationship between house prices and macroeconomic variables. The results of VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test show that there is bi-directional causality between house prices and interest rates and exchange rates. It is observed that one-directional causality exists from gross domestic product and money supply to house prices.

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