Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması

Son yıllarda teorik ve ampirik çalışmalarda mali daralmanın tüketimi canlandıracağını ve buna bağlı olarak toplam talep ve çıktıda artışa yol açacağını öne süren genişletici mali daralma hipotezi (GMD) tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1987-2006 döneminde GMD hipotezinin geçerliliği yapısal VAR yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeline (VHDM) uzun dönem kısıtlar konularak etki tepki analizi yapılmıştır. Kamu harcamaları, ticaret hadleri ve gelirdeki yapısal şoklar kalıcı ve geçici bileşenlerine ayrılmıştır. Uzun dönem kısıtlar konularak kalıcı şokların etkileri belirlenmiştir. Ampirik sonuçlar, Türkiye’de mali daralmanın genişletici olmadığını göstermektedir. Sonuçlara göre, ticaret hadlerinin ve arz şoklarının tüketim üzerinde daha fazla açıklayıcı etkiye sahip olduğu söylenebilir.

Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis: The Case of Turkey

Recently both empiricial and theoretical studies focus on expansionary fiscal contraction hypothesis (EFC), according to which fiscal contractions stimulate consumption and also lead to an increase in aggregate demand and output. In this paper the validity of the EFC hypothesis is tested for Turkey from 1987 to 2006 by means of structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. Impulse response analysis is carried out by imposing long-run restrictions on Vector Error-correction Models (VECM). Structural shocks in government expenditure, terms of trade and income are decomposed into permanent and transitory components. Long-run identifying restrictions are imposed on the effects of permanent shocks. Empirical analysis indicates that fiscal contractions are not expansionary in Turkey. Based on the findings, terms of trade and supply shocks seem to have more explanatory effect on consumption expenditure.

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