Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirliği: Zamanlararası Bütçe Kısıtı Testleri

Geri ödeme yeteneği cari politikaların sürdürülebilirliğini gösteren zamanlar arası bütçe kısıtından türetilmektedir. Genel olarak, borç servisinde kullanılacak olan kaynakların bugünkü değeri cari borç stokuna eşitse, geri ödeme yeteneği koşulu sağlanmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye ekonomisinde dış borç geri ödeme ödemeleri bakımından sürdürülebilirlik koşulunun sağlanıp sağlanamadığını test etmektir. Sawada (1994) önerdiği ulusal muhasebe özdeşliği temelinde, Wilcox (1989) Hakkio- Rush (1991) önermeleri ile belirlenen sürdürülebilirlik koşulları, birim kök ve eşbütünleşme yöntemleri ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen ekonometrik sonuçlar, Türkiye ekonomisinin dış borç geri ödemeleri itibariyle geri ödenme yeteneği koşulunu sağladığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Foreign Debt Sustainability:Tests of Intertemporal Budget Constraint

Solvency is derived from the intertemporal budget constraint which shows sustainability of current policies. Generally, when the expected value of the future resources devoted to debt service equals the current debt stock, solvency condition is satisfied. Main objective of this study is to test whether Turkish economy satisfies debt sustainability criteria in light of foreign debt repayment. On the basis of national accounting identity which Sawada (1994) suggests, sustainability conditions determined by Wilcox (1989) and Hakkio- Rush (1991) propositions are tested with unit root and co-integration methods. Econometric results obtained demonstrate that solvency condition is satisfied in consideration of foreign debt repayment of Turkish Economy.

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