Ömer Göksel İŞYAR

6718

Uluslararası İlişkilerin Öngörüsünde Enformasyonun Önemi ve İlgili Planlama Yöntemleri

Tarihi süreç içinde karşılaşılan ulusal ve uluslararası önemli ve acil krizlerin çoğu, taraflar arasında yetersiz ve etkin olmayan iletişim ve enformasyon eksikliği nedeniyle ortaya çıkmıştır. Kontrol teorisi perspektifinden bakıldığında enformasyon akışı en önemli role sahiptir. Konvansiyonel enformasyon sistemleri kriz durumlarında yetersiz kalmaktadırlar. Birçok krizin dinamik yapısı belirsizlik problemlerini daha da arttırmaktadır. Uluslararası ilişkilerde hem uzun dönemde hem de kısa dönemde önemli değişimler meydana gelmektedir. Bu nedenle alan, manipülasyon için yüksek potansiyele sahiptir. Geniş bir zaman aralığında uluslararası ilişkilerin karmaşık öngörüleri için gelecek orientasyonlu araştırmaların uygun metotlarına gereksinme vardır. Uygulayıcılar, politikaların yerine getirilmesinin pragmatik yönleri üzerinde yoğunlaşırlar; onlar planlama orientasyonludurlar, dolayısıyla geleceğin planlanmasıyla ilgilidirler. Sosyal bilimlerin konvansiyonel metotları bu alanda alternatif politika sonuçlarının etkin bir biçimde öngörüleri için uygun değildirler. Bu nedenle, üst düzey karar vericiler için yeterli olmaktan uzaktırlar. Dolayısıyla, daha çok fiziki bilim dallarında uygulanan gelecek orientasyonlu, disiplinlerarası ve bütünleşik bazı operasyonel metotlar sosyal bilim dallarına transfer edilerek bazı uygulamalar başlatılmıştır. Örneğin, bazı matematiksel modeller, simülasyona dayalı planlama teknikleri, uzman görüşlerine dayanan sistematik yaklaşımlar ve çapraz-etki teknikleri (mesela, sistem dinamikleri) gibi operasyonel metotlar bu gereksinimleri karşılayabilmektedirler. Gelecek oryantasyonlu araştırma metotlarının potansiyel olarak uygulanabilirliğinin zengin olduğu önemli bir alan uluslararası ilişkilerdir. Bu alan, karmaşık sistemlerin bir bütünleşik yaklaşımını ve planlama faaliyetlerini içermektedir. Sistem analizlerine dayanan yaklaşımlar (sistem dinamikleri simülasyonu gibi) bu gereksinimleri, tanımsal olarak sağlamaktadırlar.
Anahtar Kelimeler:

planlama

The Role of Information in Forecasting International Relations and Appropriate Planning Methods: The Case of Turkey

The article points out the importance of creating an intellectual-disciplinary atmosphere for forecasting and planning the future in international relations. It is argued that, many of the important and urgent national and international crises have emerged because of the reason of insufficient and ineffective communication and lack of information.Information-flow has the central role for controlling theory approach. Conventional information systems can not cope with the crises situations. Important changes both in short and long run occur in international relations. Therefore it is a field with high capacity for manipulation. There is a need to employ appropriate methods used in future oriented researches to forecast the complexities in international relations. The practitioners focus on the pragmatic side of policy implementation and, they are planning-oriented and related with future planning. Social sciences' traditional methods in the other side, are not useful for producing effective forecasting from the alternative policy results. They are also far from being sufficient or useful for the high level decision makers. Therefore, researchers in the social sciences are realizing that the time has come to emulate physical technology. They already have begun transferring the methods of operations research which involve interdisciplinary considerations and future-directed orientations.Some kinds of mathematical models, simulated planning techniques, the systematic use of expert judgement, and cross-impact techniques (i.e., systems dynamics) imply an interdisciplinary and future-oriented system view of the subject matter. A potentially rich field of applications of methods of future research is that of international relations. This field needs an integrated approach and planned manipulation of complex systems. The systems analysis involves these requirements (integrated approach, interdisciplinary considerations, future-directed orientations, and planning efforts).
Keywords:

planning,

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Amme İdaresi Dergisi-Cover
  • ISSN: 1300-1795
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 1968
  • Yayıncı: -
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