Türkiye'de illerarası Fiyat Yakınsaması

Satın alma gücü paritesi (SGP) ülkeler arası fiyat seviyesi ve nominal kur dinamiklerini incelemektedir. SGP araştırmalarında tatminkâr sonuç alınmaması ve fiyat dinamiklerinin daha iyi araştırılması için aynı ülke içindeki şehirlerin fiyat seviyelerinde yakınsama olup olmadığı araştırılmaya başlanmıştır. Yapılan çalışmalarda genelde fiyat yakınsamasının olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmışsa da, yakınsama süresi beklenenden uzun çıkmıştır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin 19 ilinin TÜFE’sinde yakınsama tek değişkenli ve panel birim kök metotlarıyla incelenmiş ve istatistiksel olarak yakınsamanın olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Yarı ömür diğer çalışmalardan çok daha yüksel olan 13 sene bulunmuştur.

Price Level Convergence Among Provinces in Turkey

Purchasing power parity (PPP) analyzes the price level and nominal exchange rate dynamics among countries. The unsatisfactory results obtained from PPP research and to be able to better understand the price level dynamics, investigating price level convergence among cities in the same country became popular. Even though, in general, it is found that there is price convergence among cities, the convergence time is longer than expected. In this study the CPI convergence has been investigated for Turkey’s 19 provinces using univariate and panel unit root tests, and it has been found that statistically no convergence is found. Half life is found to be 13 years which is much larger than the ones in other studies.

PDF

___

BOWMAN, D. (1998), Efficiency tests for autoregressive unit root in panel data. American Central Bank, Board of Governors.
CAMARERO, M., ESTEVE V. ve TAMARI, C. (2000), Price convergence of peripheral European countries on the way to the EMU: A time series approach. Empirical Economics 25, s. 149-168.
CAMPBELL, J. ve PERRON, P. (1991), Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots, National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual, s. 141–201.
CARRION-I-SILVESRTRE, J., BARRION T. ve E. LO´ PEZ-BAZO (2004), Evidence on the purchasing power parity in a panel of cities. Applied Economics 36, s. 961–966.
CECCHETTI, S., MARK, N., ve SONARA, R. (2002), Price index convergence among United States cities, International Economic Review 43(4), s. 1081-1099.
CEGLOWSKI, J. (2003), The law of one price: International evidence for Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics 36, s. 373-400.
CHAUDHURI, K. ve SHEEN, J. (2004), Purchasing Power Parity Across States and Goods Within Australia. The Economic Record 80, s. 314–329.
CULVER, S. ve PAPELL, D.(1999), Panel Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity Using International and International Data, Houston University.
ENGEL, C., ROGERS, J.H., (1996), How wide is the border? American Economic Review 86, s. 1112-1125.
ENGEL, C., ve ROGERS, J.H. (2001), Deviations from purchasing power parity: causes and welfare costs. Journal of International Economics 55, s. 29-58.
ESAKA, T. (2003), Panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity between Japanese cities, 1960–1998: disaggregated price data. Japan and the World Economy 15, s. 233–244.
FRANKEL, J. (1986), International Capital Mobility and Crowding Out in the U.S. Economy: Imperfect Integration of Financial Markets or of Goods Markets? How Open is the U.S. Economy?, Edit: R. Hafer, Lexington Books.
FLOOD, R.P. ve TAYLOR, M.P. (1996), Exchange Rate Economics: What is wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach? The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, Ed: J.A. Frankel, G. Gali ve A. Giovannini, Chicago University Pres.
HAKKIO, C. (1984), A reexamination of Purchasing Power Parity. Journal of International Economics 17, s. 265-277.
IM KS, PESARAN M.H. ve SHIN, Y. (2003), Testing for unit Roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics 115, s. 53–74.
LEVIN A., C. LIN, ve CHU, C. (2002), Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics 108, s. 1–24.
MADDALA, G.S. ve WU, S. (1999) A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61, s. 631–52.
NENNA, M. (2001), Price Level Convergence among Italian Cities: Any Role for the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis? Roma University
O’CONNELL, P. ve WEI, S. (2002), The Bigger They Are, the Harder They Fall: Retail Price Differences across US Cities, Journal of International Economics 56, s. 21–53.
ÖZDEMİR, Z. A. (2004), Mean reversion in real exchange rate: empirical evidence from Turkey, 1980-1999. METU Studies in Development 31, p. s. 243 – 265.
PAPEL, D.H. ve THEODORIDIS, H. (2001), The Choice of Numeriaire Currency in Panel Tests of Purchasing Power Parity. Journal of Money Credit and Banking 33, s. 790-803.
PARSLEY, D. ve WEI, S. (2001), Explaining the Border Effect: the Role of Exchange Rate Variability, Shipping Costs, and Geography, Journal of International Economics 55, s. 87–105.
ROGOFF, K. (1996), The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle. Journal of Economic Literature 34, s. 647-668.
SARNO, L. (2000), Real Exchange Rate Behaviour in High Inflation Countries: Empirical Evidence From Turkey, 1980-1997. Applied Economics Letters 7, s. 285-291.
SONORA, R. J. (2005), City CPI Convergence in Mexico. Review of Development Economics 9(3), s. 359–36.
SOSVILLA-RIVERO, S. ve GIL-PARAJA, S. (2004), Price convergence in the European Union. Applied Economics Letters 11, s. 39–47.
TAYLOR, M.P., (1988), An empirical examination of long run purchasing power parity using cointegration techniques. Applied Economics 20, s. 1369–1381.
ZIVOT, E., ve ANDREWS, D.W.K. (1992), Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10, s. 251-270.