Şahabettin GÜNEŞ

Minimum Wage and Average Wage Relationship in Turkey: A Cointegration and Error Correction Analysis

Yasal asgari ücretlerin iş piyasasındaki özel-sektör ortalama ücretlerle olan ilişkisi Türkiyedeki araştırmalarda pek üzerinde durulan bir konu olmamıştır. Bu çalışma, eşbütünleme yöntemini kullanarak asgari ücretlerle özel-sektör ortalama ücretleri arasında uzun-dönem bir ilişkinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Söz konusu ilişkinin kısa dönemde gösterdiği özellikler ise ‘hata düzeltme’ modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar değişkenler arasında çift yönlü işleyen bir Granger-nedenselliğinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, asgari ücretlerin özellikle özel sektördeki ortalama ücretler vasıtasıyla ekonomideki makro deşkenleri önemli ölçüde etkileme potansiyeli taşıdığını söylemek mümkündür.

Türkiye'de Asgari Ücret ve Ortalama Ücret İlişkisi: Bir Koentegrasyon ve Hata Düzeltme Analizi

The effect of statutory minimum wages on average wages is not a well-studied subject in Turkey. Using cointegration analysis this study shows the existence of a long-run relationship between real minimum wages and real private-sector average wages. The short-run adjustment properties of the relationship were also established via error-correction model. The Granger-causality relationship was found to be bi-directional. The estimated results imply that the minimum wages have considerable potential to influence major macroeconomic variables in Turkey.

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