GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERDE VERGİ YAPISININ EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

2008 küresel finansal krizi sonrasında ülkeler, kriz sebebiyle artan kamu borç yükü ve bütçe açıkları ile uğraşırken, bir yandan da istihdamı ve ekonomik büyümeyi teşvik edecek maliye politikası önlemleri geliştirmenin yollarını aramaya başlamıştır. Bu bağlamda vergiler ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenirken, vergi gelirlerini azaltmadan vergi yapısının büyümeyi teşvik edecek şekilde nasıl tasarlanabileceği ampirik literatürde sıkça araştırılan bir konu haline gelmiştir. Ampirik çalışmalardan elde edilen bulgular neticesinde gelir üzerinden alınan vergilerin toplam vergiler içindeki payının azaltılarak, tüketim ve servet vergilerinin payının artırılması önerilmeye başlanmıştır. Bu çalışmada söz konusu önerinin gelişmekte olan ülkeler için de geçerli olup olmadığı incelenmiştir. 2000-2018 dönemi 54 gelişmekte olan ülkenin genel yönetim vergi gelirleri ile büyüme oranları arasındaki ilişkiler dinamik panel veri analiz teknikleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Toplam vergi yükünü azaltmadan, vergi yapısındaki değişiklikler ile gelişmekte olan ülkeler özelinde ekonomik büyümenin teşvik edilebileceği vergi politikası önerileri ortaya koyulmuştur. Çalışmada literatürle uyumlu bir şekilde gelir yansızlığı varsayımı altında toplam vergi gelirleri içinde gelir üzerinden alınan vergilerin payının azaltılıp, tüketim vergilerinin payının artırılması halinde ekonomik büyüme oranının olumlu yönde etkilenebileceği tespit edilmiştir. Ancak bu bulgu kişisel gelir vergisi ve sosyal güvenlik yükümlülüklerinin payının azaltılması ve tüketim vergilerinin payının artırılması halinde geçerlidir. Kurumlar vergisinin büyümeye en çok zarar veren vergi türü, servet vergilerinin ise büyümeye en az zarar veren vergiler olduğuna yönelik anlamlı bir kanıt elde edilememiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Vergi yapısı, Büyüme, Dinamik panel veri analizi, Gelişmekte olan ülkeler

THE IMPACT OF TAX STRUCTURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

After the 2008 global financial crisis, countries started to look for ways to develop fiscal policy measures to encourage employment and economic growth, while dealing with the increasing public debt burden and budget deficits due to the crisis. In this context, the question of how the tax structure can be designed to encourage growth without reducing tax revenues has become a frequently researched topic in the literature while examining the relationship between taxes and economic growth. As a result of the findings obtained from empirical studies, it has been suggested to increase the share of consumption and wealth taxes by decreasing the share of income taxes in total taxes. In this study, it was examined whether the aforementioned proposal is also valid for developing countries. The relations between general government tax revenues and growth rates of 54 developing countries for the 2000-2018 period were examined using dynamic panel data analysis techniques. Tax policy proposals that can encourage economic growth in developing countries with changes in the tax structure without reducing the total tax burden were put forward. In line with the literature, under the assumption of revenue-neutrality, it was determined that the economic growth rate would be positively affected if the share of income taxes in total tax revenues was reduced and the share of consumption taxes increased. However, this finding is valid if reductions in personal income tax and social security contributions offset by increases in consumption taxes. No evidence was found that corporate tax is the most harmful tax type for growth or wealth taxes are the most growth-friendly.

Keywords:

Tax structure, Growth, Dynamic panel data analysis, Developing countries,

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