TÜRKİYE’DE MALİYE POLİTİKASI İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ UZUN VADELİ İLİŞKİ

Maliye politikasının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkinliği kamu maliyesi literatüründe hala çok tartışılan bir konudur. Bu konuda Türkiye için literatürde tutarlı sonuçlar içeren, yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan kapsamlı ekonometrik modeller kullanan güncel bir ampirik çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Bu bağlamda, çalışmamız 1980 – 2017 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde Türkiye için maliye politikası ile büyüme oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye’de maliye politikasın ekonomik büyümeyi uzun ve kısa vadede nasıl etkilediğini anlamaktır. Bu ilişkinin analizi için otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme modeli (ARDL) kullanılmış ve sınır testi yapılmıştır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin maliye politikası etkinliğini ölçme noktasında ARDL sınır testi metodunu kullanan ve tutarlı sonuçlar veren ilk çalışmadır. Ayrıca, çalışmamız daha önceki çalışmalarda göz ardı edilen değişkenleri dikkate alması bakımından da literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Bütçe dengesinin maliye politikası duruşunu ifade ettiği modelimizin sonuçları uzun vadede maliye politikasının çıktı üzerinde anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Ancak, modelimizin kısa vadeli sonuçlarına göre kısa vadede maliye politikasının büyüme üzerindeki etkinliği ispatlanamamıştır. 

THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

The effectiveness of the fiscal policy on the economic growth is still a much-debated issue in the public finance literature. Current studies for Turkey analyzing this issue, have not a comprehensive econometric model with coherent results. In this vein, our study investigates the relationship between the fiscal policy and the economic growth in Turkey for the period 1980-2017. The main aim of the study is to understand how the fiscal policy affects the economic growth in Turkey both in the short and long run. We employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and the bounds test to detect the long-run relationship. This is the first study, having coherent results and a correctly specified model, using ARDL to test the long-run effectiveness of the fiscal policy in Turkey. Using the budget balance indicator as the fiscal policy stance, our long-run ARDL results reveal that the fiscal policy is a significant determinant of the output in the long run. However, it is shown that the fiscal policy is not effective in the short run.

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Akademik Hassasiyetler-Cover
  • ISSN: 2148-5933
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 2014
  • Yayıncı: A Kitap