Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Kurumlar ve Ekonomik Performans Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Kurumsal iktisat yaklaşımı ile birlikte kurumların ülkeler arasındaki ekonomik gelişmişlik farklılıklarını açıklamada en önemli faktörlerden biri olduğu genel kabul görmüş, bu doğrultuda, literatürde, kurumlar ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi “kurumların üstünlüğü” varsayımı çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Söz konusu yaklaşımda, kurumsal yapının iktisadi büyüme ve kalkınmanın altında yatan temel neden olduğu kabul edilmiştir. Ancak tersi yöndeki ilişki, iktisadi büyüme ve kalkınmanın kurumsal performans üzerindeki etkisi üzerinde az durulan konulardan olmuştur. Literatürde, kurumlar ve ekonomik performans arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini ele alan göreli olarak az sayıdaki çalışmanın sonuçları ise karmaşıktır. Bu çerçevede, çalışmada, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde kurumlar ve ekonomik performans arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin panel VECM modeli kullanılarak araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, uzun dönemde, hükümetin etkinliği ve düzenlemelerin kalitesi ile ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri arasında, kurumsal faktörlerden, ekonomik büyümeye doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Ancak, ekonomik büyümeden hükümetin etkinliği ve düzenlemelerin kalitesine doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamamıştır. Diğer taraftan, hukukun üstünlüğü ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen kısa dönemli nedensellik ilişkilerine ilişkin bulgulara göre ise hükümetin etkinliği ve düzenlemelerin kalitesi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamazken, düzenlemelerin kalitesinden iktisadi büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

An Investigation on The Causality Between Institutions and Economic Performance in Developing Countries

With the institutional economics approach, it is generally accepted that institutions are one of the most important factors in explaining the differences in economic development among countries, in this framework, the relationship between institutions and economic performance was analyzed based on the assumption of the "primacy of institutions," and in this context, it was admitted that the institutional structure was the main underlying reason for economic growth and development in the literature. However, with regard to the reverse relationship, the effect of economic growth and development on institutional performance has become one of the less emphasized issues in the literature. The results of the relatively few studies in the literature addressing the causality relationship between institutions and economic performance are ambiguous. Within this framework, the study aimed to investigate the causality between institutions and economic performance in developing countries using the panel VECM model. According to the results, while a causality was found from institutional factors to economic growth between the effectiveness of the government and the quality of regulations and economic growth in the long term, it was concluded that there was a bidirectional causality between the rule of law and economic growth. Moreover, it was found that there was a short-term causality from the quality of regulations to economic growth but there is no short-term causality between government efficiency and quality and economic growth.

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