Karlı Dağlık Bir Havzada Günlük ve Aylık Akım Değerlerinin SWAT Modeliyle Değerlendirilmesi: Bitlis Çayı Havzası Örneği

Bu çalışmada, yerel meteoroloji istasyonlarının günlük meteorolojik ölçümleri ile kaba ölçeklitopoğrafya, arazi örtüsü ve toprak verileri kullanılarak oluşturulan bir SWAT modelinin, karlı dağlık birhavzada günlük ve aylık akım değerlerini simülasyon ve tahmin performansı Bitlis Çayı örneğindedeğerlendirilmiştir. Fırat-Dicle havzasında yer alan Bitlis Çayı’nın Baykan akım gözlem istasyonuyerindeki akım değerlerini simüle edebilmek için geliştirilen SWAT modeli, Baykan istasyonunun ölçümverileri kullanılarak günlük ve aylık akım simülasyonları için ayrı ayrı kalibre edilip doğrulanmıştır. Hemkalibrasyon hem de doğrulama periyodunda günlük akım değerleri için iyi, aylık akım değerleri için iseçok iyi olarak nitelendirilebilecek simülasyon istatistikleri elde edilmiştir. Geliştirilen modelin, akımölçümleri olmadan sadece meteorolojik veriler kullanılarak günlük ve aylık akımları ne derece doğrutahmin edilebileceği incelendiğinde ise modelin hem istatistiksel değerlendirme indeksleri hem de akımsüreklilikilişkileri bağlamında tatmin edici tahmin performansları sunabildiği görülmüştür. Günlük akımtahminleri ile ölçüm verileri arasında yıllık maksimum zaman serileri bağlamında güçlü bir korelasyonelde edilememiş olsa da bu durumun hesaplanan tekerrürlü taşkın debileri bağlamında belirgin farklaryaratmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, geliştirilen SWAT modelinin, gelecek on yıllarda BitlisÇayı’nın akım rejiminde meydana gelebilecek olası değişimlerin günlük ve aylık bazda incelenebilmesineolanak sağlayabileceğini göstermektedir.

Evaluation of Daily and Monthly Streamflow Rates in a Snowy Mountainous Watershed with SWAT Model: A Case of Bitlis Creek Basin

In this study, the performance of a SWAT model constructed with daily weather observations of regional meteorological stations and coarse-scale topography, land cover, and soil data in simulating and forecasting daily and monthly streamflow rates in a snowy mountainous watershed is assessed with the example of Bitlis Creek. The SWAT model developed to simulate the flow rates of Bitlis Creek, located in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin, at the location of the Baykan stream-gauging station is calibrated and validated separately for daily and monthly flow simulations by using the records of the Baykan station. Simulation statistics that can be judged as good for daily flow rates and very good for monthly flow rates are obtained in both of the calibration and validation periods. When it is examined how accurately the developed model can predict the daily and monthly flows using only meteorological data without flow measurements, it is observed that the model can provide satisfactory forecast performances in the context of both statistical evaluation indices and flow-duration relations. Although a strong correlation between the daily flow estimates and observed data in terms of annual maximum time series cannot be obtained, it is observed that this situation does not result in significant differences in terms of the calculated recurrence flood peaks. The results indicate that the developed model can enable the investigations of possible changes in the flow regime of Bitlis Creek in the coming decades on daily and monthly time bases.

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