SEÇİLMİŞ ASYA ÜLKELERİNDE HANEHALKI TASARRUFLARI VE FİNANSAL GELİŞME

Ülkelerin büyüme sürecinde önemli bir unsur olan tasarrufların, çok sayıdaki belirleyicilerden biri finansal siteminin gelişmişlik düzeyidir. Tasarruflar ve finansal gelişme açısından gelişmekte olan Asya ülkelerinin başarısı dikkat çekicidir. Bu çalışmada, 2000-2016 döneminde gelişmekte olan Çin, Güney Kore, Malezya ve Tayland’da finansal sistemin gelişmesinin tasarruflar üzerindeki rolü çeşitli toplulaştırılmış göstergeler kapsamında incelenmektedir. Hanehalkı tasarruflarının finansal sistem aracılığıyla artırılması konusunda ele alınan Asya ülkelerinde geçmişte önemli çalışmalar yapılmış ve başarılı sonuçlar alınmıştır. Ancak, daha sonra söz konusu ülkelerin hanehalkı borçlarında ciddi artışlar meydana gelmiş, buna karşın hanehalkı tasarruflarında önemli düzeyde azalışlar olmuştur. Bu değişimin temel nedeni, bu ülkelerin ihracata dayalı büyüme politikalarını değiştirerek, tüketime dayalı büyüme politikalarına yönelmeleridir. İncelenen Asya ülkelerinin finansal gelişmişlik düzeyleri ise hala Avrupa ve Dünya ortalamasının altında kalması nedeniyle, finansal gelişmişlik düzeyinin tek başına tasarruflar üzerinde etkili olmadığı, makroekonomik veya kurumsal faktörlere bağlı olduğu değerlendirilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Hanehalkı Tasarrufları, Finansal Gelişme, İktisadi Büyüme

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSEHOLD SAVING IN SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES

Saving is one of the important determinants of economic growth. Therefore determinants of saving are indirectly important for a sustainable economic growth. Financial sector has come into prominence as a possible determinant of saving in the globalized financial markets. This study examines the role of the development of the financial sector on savings in China, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand, during the period of 2000-2016, by using various aggregated indicators. Significant work has been done in the past and successful results have been obtained in the selected Asian countries, in terms of increasing household savings through the financial system. However, later on, there were serious increases in the household debts of the countries concerned, while there was a significant decline in household savings. The main reason for this change is that these countries change their exports-based growth policies and turn to consumption-based growth policies.It is estimated that the financial development level of Asian countries under review is still below the average of Europe and the world, so that the level of financial development alone is not influential on savings and depends on macroeconomic or institutional factors.

Keywords:

Household Savings, Financial Developmen, Economic Growth,

PDF

___

Agrawal, P., Sahoo, P. & Dash, R.K. (2009). Savings Behaviour in South Asia. Journal of Policy Modelling, 31, 208-224.
Ang, James, B (2010). “Saving Mobilization Financial Devolepment and Libarization: The Case Of Malaysia”, MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive,: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21718/1/MPRA_paper_ 21718.pdf, (11.02.2018)
Arora, R.U.. (2014). Access to Finance: An Empirical Analysis, European Journal of Development Research, DOI: 10.1057/ejdr.2013.50
Asya Kalkınma Bankası (2017) Asian Development Outlook 2017, Asian Development Bank, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/237761/ado-2017.pdf,( 01.03.2018)
Atamtürk, Burak (2004) “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyümenin Nedensellik Yönü Üzerine Bir İnceleme (1975-2003) “İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları”, 32-46
Atamtürk, Burak (2007) “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde ve Türkiye’de Finansal Serbestleşmenin İç Tasarruflar Üzerine Etkisi”, Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 23(2), 46-78.
Aziz Zeki Akhtar (2004) “Mardeka Saving Bonds Malaysia - Encouraging Savings in a Dynamic Economy” http://www.bis.org/review/r040115c.pdf), (16.12.2017)
Banjo, Shelly (2017) “Korea's Stubborn Leviathan”, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/korea-s-reform-block-the-495-billion-national-pension-service, (25.12.2017)
Bangkokbank (2017) http://www.bangkokbank.com/BangkokBank/PersonalBanking/BuildYourWealth/MutualFunds/BBLAM/RMF/Pages/default.aspx,(20.11.2017)
Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Levine, R. (2007). Finance, Inequality and the Poor, Journal of Economic Growth 12, 27-49.
Brandmeir, Kathrin, Michaela Grimm, Michael Heise, Arne Holzhausen (2017) Allianz Global Wealth Report 2017, https://www.allianz.com/v_1506497732000/media/press/document/AGWR_17-Report_EN.pdf (10.01.2018)
Ceicdata (2018): https://www.ceicdata.com/en/thailand/gdp-per-capita-usd-asia/gdp-per-capita-usd, (12.11.2017)
Connoly, Michelle, Kei-Mu-Yii (2008) How Much of South Korea’s Growth MiracleCan BeExplained by Trade Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Papers, https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp08-23bk.pdf(20.11.2017)
Consumer (2017):https://www.consumer.org.my/index.php/personal-finance/debt/465-household-debt-in-malaysia-is-it-sustainable(12.02.2018)
Duesenberry, J., (1949), Income, Saving, and the Theory of Consumer Behavior, Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
Dünya Bankası (2012) “Yüksek Büyümenin Sürdürülebilirliği: Yurtiçi Tasarrufların Rolü Türkiye Ülke Ekonomik Raporu.”66301-Tr, www.dpt.gov.tr/DocObjects/TürkiyeUlkeEkonomiRaporu Tükce.pdf, (12.02.2018).
DünyaBankası(2016) Kalkınma Göstergeleri :https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS?end=2016&locations=TR&start=2003&view=chart(11.01.2018)
Dünya Borsalar Federasyonu (2016) World Federation of Exchange Annual Statistics Guide, https://www.world-exchanges.org/home/index.php/statistics/annual-statistics
Dünya Ekonomik Forumu (2011), “The Financial Development Report 2011.” World Economic Forum, New York: USA Inc.
Eichengreen, B. (2013). “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Long View.”PAFTAD, Pacific Trade and Development Working Paper Series, Paper No. 36-01.
Ekinci, Aykut., Gül, Ekrem (2007), “Türkiye’de Yurtiçi Tasarruflar ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Uygulamalı Bir Analiz (1960 – 2004)”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19, 167-184.
English Yonhapnews (2017) http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2017/11/20/0502000000AEN20171120009851320.html (11.01.2018)
Eschenbach, Felix (2004). Finance and Growth:A Survey of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, 2004-039/2.
Easterly, W., R. Islam, and J. Stiglitz. (2000). “Shaken and Stirred: Explaining Growth Volatility.” In Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2000, edited by B.Pleskovic and J. E. Stiglitz, 191–211. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Financial Tribune (2017): https://financialtribune.com/articles/world-economy/76829/south-korea-household-debt-surpasses-13t(12.01.2018)
Friedman, M. (1957), A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Gerschenkron, Alexander (1962). Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective: A Book of Essays. Camebridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Goldsmith, Raymond W. (1969). Financial Structure and Development. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Grabel, I. (2010) ‘Productive Incoherence in an Uncertain World’. PERI Working Paper 214, University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
Haberturk (2017): 12 Kasım 2017 http://www.haberturk.tv/ekonomi/haber/1710636-cin-de-bekarlar-gunu-nde-alisveris-cilginligi,(12.01.2018)
Hansson, Pontus, Lars Jonung (1997):“Finance and Economic Growth: the Case Sweden, 1834-1991.”, Research in Economics, 51, 1997, 276-277.
Hepsağ, Aycan (2009). “Finansal Liberalizasyon Politikalarının Geçerliliğinin McKinnon Tamamlayıcılık Hipotezi Çerçevesinde Sınanması: Türkiye Örneği”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 3, 56-73.
Horoiko, Charles Yuji, Hagiwara, Akiko Terada (2011 ). “The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia”, NBER Working Paper No. 17581
Hung, Juann H., Rong Qian (2010). “Why Is China’s Saving Rate So High? A Comparative Study of Cross-Country Panel Data”, Working Paper Series, Congressional Budget Office, Washington, D.C., 21-87.
Işık, Sayim, Harun Doğan, Cem Kadılar (2005), “Ekonomik Büyümede Para ve Fiziki Sermaye: Mckinnon Tamamlayıcılık Hipotezi’nin Türkiye için Testi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 37-51.
Kadılar, Cem, Harun Doğan, Sayım Işık (2005) “Ekonomik Büyümede Para ve Fiziki Sermaye: Mckinnon Tamamlayıcılık Hipotezi’nin Türkiye için Testi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 20(233), 37–51.
Jha, Shikha, Eswar Prasad, Akiko Terada-Hagiwara (2009) Saving in Asia and Issues for Rebalancing Growth, ADB Economics Working Paper Series, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28252/economics-wp162.pdf, (10.01.2018)
Jinping, Xi (2017) 19th CPC National Congress Report, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/19thcpcnationalcongress/2017-11/04/content_34115212.htm, (03.03.2018)
Jongwanich Juthattip (2009) “The Determinants of Household and Private Savings in Thailand, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840701721067, (02.01.2018)
Keynes, John Maynard (1936). The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.
King, Robert G., Ross Levine (1993). “Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 515-563.
KPMG (2018) https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/tr/pdf/2018/01/sektorel-bakis-2018-bankacilik.pdf,(20.02.2017)
Krin Institute (2017) http://www.krinstitute.org/The_State_of_Households_II-@HOUSEHOLD_SAVINGS_AND_DEBT.aspx,(10.12.2017)
Lardy R. Nicholas (2006). “Chine: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path”, (Çevrimiçi): https://piie.com/publications/pb/pb06-6.pdf, 12.11.2017
Levine, Ross (1997). “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda”, Journal of Economic Literature, V. 35, 688-726.
Levine, Ross, Sara Zervos (1998) “Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth”, American Economic Review, 88, 537-555.
McKinnon, Ronald I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development. Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution.
Modigliani, Franco, Richard H. Brumberg, (1954), “Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: an Interpretation of Cross-Section Data,” ed. Kenneth K. Kurihara,
Post-Keynesian Economics, New Brunswick, NJ. Rutgers University Press, 388–436.
Naugton, Barry (1997) The China Circle: Economics and Electronics in the PRC,Taiwan and Hong Kong, Washington D.C., Brookings Institution Press, (20.01.2018)
Oktay, Fatih (2017) “Çin ve Değişen Dünya Dengeleri”, Dünya Gazetesi, https://www.dunya.com/kose-yazisi/cin-ve-degisen-dunya-dengeleri/371488, (30.11.2017)
Özlale, Ümit, Alper Karakurt (2012): “Türkiye’de Tasarruf Açığının Nedenleri ve Kapatılması İçin Politika Önerileri”, Bankacılar Dergisi, 83, 1-33 http://www.tbb.org.tr/Dosyalar/Arastirma_ve_Raporlar/ozlale.pdf, (04.12.2017)
Patrick, H.T., (1966). “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries.” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14: 174-189.
Pension Funds Online (2018) Country Profiles, South Korea, http://www.pensionfundsonline.co.uk/content/country-profiles/south-korea/97, 28.01.2018.
Pigou, A.C.,(1943), “The Classical Stationary State”, Economic Journal, Vol:53, Nu.212.
Pongpen Ruengvirayudh, Sakkapop Panyanuku (2005) “The Corporate Bond Market in Thailand” , Bank of Thailand (BoT). https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap26t.pdf
Pootrakool , K., Ariyapruchya, K., Sodsrichai, T., (2005) “Long Term Saving in Thailand”,https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/MonetaryPolicy/ArticleAndResearch/SymposiumDocument/paper5_2548.pdf, (10.01.2018)
Robinson, Joan (1952). “The Generalization of the General Theory”. In The Rate of Interest and other Essays. London: Macmillan.
Romer, P.M. (1986). “Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037
Schmidt-Hebbel, K., L. Serven (2002). Financial Liberalization, Saving, and Growth. Banco de Mexico Conference on Macroeconomic Stability, Financial Markets, and Economic Development, Mexico, Nov. 12-13.
Schumpeter, Joseph A. (1911), The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Shaw, Edward S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development, New York: Oxford University Press.
Sil, Yoon Yung (2017) “Personal Financial Assets”, http:www.businesskorea.co.kr/english/news/industry/19521-personal-financial-assets-s-korea-ranks-22nd-capita-net-financial-assets, (12.12.2017)
Solow, R.M. (1956). “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
Stiglitz, Joseph E. (1989). “Financial Markets and Development”. Oxford Review of Economic Policy; V.5-#4, 55-68.
Takeshi, Kurihara (2012). “Achievements of Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI) in the last Decade and Future Challenges”, http://www.oecd.org/finance/financial-markets/49700575.pdf, (25.12.2017)
The Economist (2017) “Mutable Values Asian households binge on debt, 2 Kasım 2017 The Economist, https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21730932-what-should-be-good-news-global-economy-has-its-downsides-asian-households, (03.03.2018)
The Economist Eiu (2016) http://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1034832687/south-korea-banking-sector-risk/2016-11-12,(12.01.2018)
Tobin, James (1965). “Money and Economic Growth”. Econometrica; V. 33-#4, 671-684.
Tradingeconomics (2017): https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/gross-domestic-savings-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html,(05.12.2017)
Tupling, Campbell J (2010). “Towards the Optimal Pension System”, Malaysian Bussines, 1-45 http://www.cimbprincipal.com.my/prs/upload/Towards_an_Optimal_Pension_System_Msian_Biz.pdf, (01.02.2018)
Uluslararası Para Fonu (2017) “Global Financial Stability Report 2017: Is Growth at Risk?”, IMF, World Economic and Financial Surveys, http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2017/09/27/~/media/Files/Publications/GFSR/2017/October/chapter-1/Documents/text.ashx?la=en.(02.02.2018)
Yang, Denis Tao, Junsen Zhang, Shaojjie Zhou (2011). “Why are Saving Rates so High in China”, (Çevrimiçi): http://www.neber.org/papers/w16771, (20.12.2013).
Zhang, Hanming Fang (2017) China’s High Saving Rate: Analytics and Prospects, https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/news/conferences/2017/0518-second-research-workshop-chinas-economy/presentations/zhang.pdf. (20.03.2018)