TÜRKİYE’NİN NET PETROL İTHALATININ FİYAT VE GELİR ESNEKLİKLERİ: ARDL MODELLEME YAKLAŞIMI İLE EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'nin net petrol ithalatının fiyat ve gelir esnekliklerinin tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bunun için, 1970-2010 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılarak ARDL modelleme yaklaşımıyla eşbütünleşme analizi yapılmış ve aynı yaklaşımın hata düzeltme modeli uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre net petrol ithalatının gelir esnekliği uzun dönemde 0,67; kısa dönemde 1,11 olarak bulunmuştur. Net petrol ithalatının fiyat esnekliği ise beklenen negatif işarete sahip olmakla birlikte, gerek kısa dönem gerekse uzun dönem için istatiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Buna göre net petrol ithalatının, kısa ve uzun dönemde petroldeki fiyat değişmelerinden etkilenmediği sonucuna varılabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Petrol İthalatı, Fiyat ve Gelir Esneklikleri, ARDL Sınır Testi, Eşbütünleşme Analizi, Türkiye

PRICE AND INCOME ELASTICITIES OF NET OIL IMPORTS IN TURKEY: AN ARDL MODELLING APPROACH TO COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

The aim of this study is to estimate the short-run and the long-run price and income elasticities of net oil imports in Turkey. In order to achieve this objective, the autoregressive distributed lag ARDL modeling approach to cointegration analysis is employed and the error correction model of the same approach is applied by using the annual data of Turkey covering the period of 1970-2010. The estimation results yield that long-run and short-run income elasticities of net oil imports are 0,67 and 1,11 respectively. Although the short-run and long-run price elasticities of net oil imports have the expected negative signs, they have found to be statistically insignificant both in short-run and long-run. Thus, it can be concluded that net oil imports are not affected by the changes in oil prices

Keywords:

Oil Import, Price and Income Elasticities, ARDL Bounds Testing, Cointegration Analysis, Turkey,

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