ORTA GELİR TUZAĞININ BELİRLENMESİ: EKONOMETRİK ANALİZ

Orta gelir tuzağı kavramı son yıllarda iktisat literatüründe en çok tartışılan konulardan birisi haline gelmiştir. Orta gelir tuzağı, orta gelirli ülkelerin kişi başına düşen gelirlerinin artmayarak uzun yıllar aynı kalması olarak tanımlanır. Buradan hareketle bu çalışmanın amacı, orta gelirli ülkelerden hangilerinin tuzakta olup olmadıklarının tespit edilmesine katkıda bulunmaktır. Bu amacı gerçekleştirmek için Robertson ve Ye’nin 2013 yaklaşımı takip edilerek ADF birim kök testi ve Narayan ve Popp 2010 tarafından geliştirilen iki yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi yapılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, 1950-2014 dönemi için kişi başına düşen gelir verileri kullanılan 71 orta gelirli ülkeden 35’i orta gelir tuz ağında iken 36 ülke tuzakta olmadığını göstermiştir. Türkiye orta gelir tuzağında olmayan ülkeler grubunda yer almıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Orta Gelir Tuzağı, ADF Testi, Yapısal Kırılmalı Birim Kök Testi

DETERMINATION OF THE MIDDLE INCOME TRAP: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

The concept of middle income trap has become one of the most debated topics in the economic literature in recent years. Middle income trap is defined as per capita income of the middle income countries remains the same for many years witHout increasing. From this point of view, the aim of this study is to contribute determining which of the middle-income countries are in the trap or not. In order to achieve this aim, following the approach developed by Robertson and Ye 2013 , ADF unit root test and two structural breaks unit root tests developed by Narayan and Popp 2010 were performed. The results of the analysis sHow that while 35 countries of the 71 middle-income countries using per capita income for the period 1950-2014 were in the middle-income trap, 36 countries were not in the trap. Turkey has been in the group of non-middle income trap countries

Keywords:

Middle Income Trap, ADF Test, Structural Breaks Unit Root Test,

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